中辉有色观点-20250818

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has an upward trend with strong industrial demand and limited supply growth. Copper is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with long - term positive prospects. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are bullish, and lithium carbonate is also recommended for long positions [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Last week, gold and silver prices declined due to factors such as the reconstruction of the global geopolitical pattern and the repeated expectations of US interest rate cuts [2]. - Basic Logic: US data is mixed, and there was a meeting between US and Russian leaders. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. The trading range for silver is expected to be between 9150 - 9400, and long - term long positions are recommended [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas copper prices [6]. - Industry Logic: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has marginally improved. During the consumption off - season, demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are tight [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: As the off - season and peak - season switch and the key interest - rate cut month of September approaches, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - price opportunities to sell and hedge [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc opened lower and moved lower overnight, under pressure and falling back [9]. - Industry Logic: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline in August, and domestic zinc inventories are accumulating [9]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short term, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. In the medium - long term, wait for high - price opportunities to short [10]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices were slightly under pressure, and alumina was in a downward trend [12]. - Industry Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the macro situation has slightly improved, with costs decreasing and inventories increasing. For alumina, the arrival volume may be affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory changes during the off - season [14]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices faced pressure during the rebound, and stainless steel was also under pressure [16]. - Industry Logic: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing with inventory accumulation. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and there is still an over - supply pressure during the off - season [17]. - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 fluctuated slightly and rose more than 2% at the end of the session [20]. - Industry Logic: Although the overall inventory and production have slightly declined, the absolute quantity is still high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream factories are stocking up, and the inventory structure is expected to drive price increases [21]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [22].