锌周报：宏观存不确定性，锌价震荡为主-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated slightly. Macroeconomically, the extension of Sino - US tariffs, the moderate growth of US CPI but the unexpected increase in PPI, and the changing expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in September led to the stabilization of the US dollar. In China, the financial and economic data in July were weak, indicating a slow economic recovery, although the new fiscal policies for personal consumption loan subsidies were helpful for economic repair [3][12]. - Fundamentally, the temporary shutdown of Nexa's mines had no substantial impact on production. The recovery of zinc concentrates was smooth, and the processing fees improved, boosting refinery profits and maintaining a high supply of refined zinc. On the demand side, the approaching military parade in early September affected the black - metal industry, with some stocking behaviors. The start - up rates of different downstream industries varied. Overseas, LME continued to reduce inventories, which supported zinc prices [4][12][13]. - Overall, the fundamental contradiction is concentrated overseas. The LME inventory reduction strongly supports zinc prices, but the repeated interest - rate cut expectations and the digestion of the inventory - reduction benefits limit the upside of zinc prices. Considering the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the upcoming speech by Powell, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate this week [4][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22515 | 22505 | - 10 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2834 | 2796.5 | - 37.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 7.94 | 8.05 | 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 65917 | 76803 | 10886 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 81500 | 76325 | - 5175 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.69 | 10.37 | - 1.32 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 30 | - 50 | - 20 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2510) first rose and then fell last week. Market risk appetite changed with interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar first fell and then rose, and zinc prices followed a similar trend. Eventually, it closed at 22505 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.04%. LME zinc fluctuated sideways, supported by continuous low - level inventory reduction but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar, closing at 2796.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [6]. - In the spot market as of August 15, prices in different regions varied, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and spot transactions were mostly among traders, with a slight spot discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 15, LME zinc inventory decreased by 5175 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 10886 tons. As of August 14, social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons compared with last Thursday, mainly due to low downstream提货 during the off - season and the impact of the upcoming military parade in Tianjin [8]. - Macroeconomically, in the US, the CPI in July increased moderately, but the PPI growth exceeded expectations. There were different views among Fed officials on interest - rate cuts. Sino - US tariffs were extended for 90 days. In China, the financial data in July were weak, but new fiscal policies for personal consumption loan subsidies were introduced [9][10][11]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 15, the average weekly domestic TC price of SMM Zn50 remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 8.05 US dollars/dry ton to 90.3 US dollars/dry ton [14]. - According to 29Metals' second - quarter report, its zinc concentrate production in the second quarter was 12,300 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous quarter, mainly due to the decrease in zinc grade and recovery rate. Its production guidance for 2025 is 60,000 - 70,000 tons [14]. - On August 12, Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco mining complex was partially shut down due to illegal blockades, but it had no substantial impact on production, and the production guidance remained unchanged [15].