甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇或偏弱震荡-20250818

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of methanol remains weak, and it is likely to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1][10][34] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, due to limited improvement in the methanol fundamentals, methanol futures continued to decline and adjust. By Friday afternoon's close, methanol weighted closed at 2,383 yuan/ton, a 1.85% drop from the previous week. The port methanol market was slightly weaker, while the inland market continued to rise [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - Last week, China's methanol production was 1,863,275 tons, an increase of 18,050 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 82.40%, a 0.97% increase from the previous week [15] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rates of some methanol downstream products varied. The olefin industry's start - up decreased slightly, the dimethyl ether's capacity utilization rate increased by 34.15% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rates of ice acetic acid, chloride, and formaldehyde all increased [18][20] 2.3 Inventory - As of August 13, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 295,600 tons, a 0.64% increase from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 219,400 tons, an 8.90% decrease from the previous period. The port methanol inventory continued to increase significantly, with a 10.41% week - on - week increase [21][24] 2.4 Profit - Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol showed differences. Coal - based profits narrowed, coke - oven gas - based profits increased, and natural - gas - based profits had limited fluctuations [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook 3.1 Supply - This week, it is expected that China's methanol production will be about 1.8948 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 83.80%, an increase from last week [31] 3.2 Downstream Demand - The start - up rates of the olefin and dimethyl ether industries are expected to increase, while the capacity utilization rates of ice acetic acid, chloride, and formaldehyde may change differently. The overall demand for methanol remains weak [32][34] 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 295,800 tons, with little change from the previous period. The port methanol inventory is expected to continue to increase [34]