PP：趋势偏弱，但低位追空要谨慎

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View - The PP trend is weak, but one should be cautious when short - selling at low levels. The cost side has been weak recently, and the demand side lacks obvious highlights. The market terminal suffers from over - capacity and great foreign trade uncertainties, leading to a weakening of export products. The domestic rigid - demand start - up has slightly increased, with active low - level procurement and cautious high - level procurement. The supply pressure has further increased due to profit repair from cost reduction and the implementation of new production capacity expansion. However, there is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and one should be vigilant at the annual low levels, especially considering the recent strengthening of the monthly spread driving market fluctuations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of PP2601 yesterday was 7084, with a daily decline of 0.14%. The trading volume was 175,405, and the open interest increased by 12,810. The basis of the 01 contract was - 104 (compared with - 85 the previous day), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was 4 (compared with - 2 the previous day) [1] - Spot Price: In the North China region, the spot price was 6900 - 7030 yuan/ton (6920 - 7070 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 6980 - 7110 yuan/ton (7000 - 7130 yuan/ton the previous day); in the South China region, it was 6920 - 7130 yuan/ton (6930 - 7130 yuan/ton the previous day) [1] 3.2 Spot News - Last Friday, the domestic PP market declined slightly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The weak intraday futures trading dragged down the spot market sentiment. Traders were generally in a wait - and - see mood. Coupled with the partial reduction of upstream petrochemical factory prices, the offers of traders in the market were mainly weakly adjusted. Near the weekend, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers to enter the market was average, and their willingness to take delivery was not strong, resulting in a dull market transaction [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The cost side has been continuously weak, and the demand side has no obvious highlights. The market terminal is restricted by over - capacity and faces great foreign trade uncertainties, leading to a weakening of export products. The domestic rigid - demand start - up has slightly increased. The market has been characterized by active low - level procurement and cautious high - level procurement throughout the year. On the supply side, the supply pressure has further increased due to profit repair from cost reduction and the implementation of new production capacity expansion. However, there is still great uncertainty on the cost side, and one should be vigilant at the annual low levels, especially considering the recent strengthening of the monthly spread driving market fluctuations [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, weakly - weak, neutral, weakly - strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [3]