尿素周报：维持震荡格局-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of urea is more likely to decline than rise, but the downside space is limited, with support at the price of 1700. The reasons include an increase in planned maintenance of domestic devices, high production and operation rates year - on - year, a shift of domestic agricultural demand to the off - season, limited overall demand support from industrial compound fertilizers, a weakening cost support for urea moving down to around 1500 - 1600, and the implementation of export policies. Attention should be paid to the specific export volume later [3]. - Overall, the domestic urea supply remains high and the pressure is difficult to relieve. The demand has weakened compared with the previous period. The agricultural demand is gradually entering the off - season, and the demand for industrial compound fertilizers is at a low level. The overall demand support is relatively weak. However, the opening of the export channel may relieve the fundamental pressure and support the urea price, so it is expected to operate in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Overview - Cost - side Logic: Recently, coal prices have risen slightly, but the coal - based production cost is at a low level. This week, the ex - factory price of urea has decreased, and the profit of coal - based urea has shrunk. The natural gas price in the southwest region has remained stable, and the profit of gas - based urea has been stable [6]. - Supply - side Logic: Recently, the number of domestic maintenance devices has increased, but it has little impact on the supply pattern. The domestic production volume remains high year - on - year, and the overall supply is loose [6]. - Demand - side Logic: In agriculture, the current demand is in the traditional off - season, with weak overall support. In industry, the operation rate of compound fertilizers has continued to increase, but downstream procurement is generally cautious, and other industrial demands maintain rigid procurement. In terms of exports, last week's meeting approved an export quota of 20 - 300,000 tons to India, but this quota is included in the first two batches, and there is no new third - batch export quota. The total export quota remains unchanged. From the current export inventory data, domestic exports are being carried out in an orderly manner [6]. 3.2 Urea Price Changes - Urea Market Price: This week, the domestic urea spot market has declined weakly, with the average price in the mainstream regions falling by about 50 yuan/ton compared with last week. The current market supply - demand pattern remains loose, the hype expectation for exports has faded, and there is a lack of new positive drivers. The bearish sentiment in the spot market is strong, and the downstream procurement psychological price continues to decline. Urea factories generally adopt a "price - for - volume" strategy, but high - priced goods have difficulty in trading [26]. - Regional Price Differences: This week, the regional price differences are within the normal range, which can be used to judge whether the regional logistics window is open [38]. - Urea Spot Profit: Recently, domestic coal prices have been mainly stable with partial narrow - range adjustments. The ex - factory price of urea has continued to decline, and the profit of coal - based urea has slightly narrowed. The price of natural gas under the agreement has been stable, and the profit of gas - based urea in the southwest region has remained stable [54]. - Comparison with Other Fertilizers: The current ratio of urea to ammonium chloride is at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, while the ratios to phosphate and potash fertilizers are at relatively low levels compared with previous years [65]. - Overseas Prices and Price Differences: China is a net exporter of urea. The theoretical export profit can be calculated based on the difference between overseas prices and domestic trade prices to judge the possibility of exports. The international urea price has generally decreased after the market digested the Indian tender, and it is expected to decline further in the future [70][80]. - Price Differences and Calendar Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread of urea has strengthened by 7 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. Due to the decline in the spot and futures prices this week, the basis has continued to weaken. For example, the basis of the 09 contract in Henan has weakened by 33 yuan/ton compared with last week [79]. 3.3 Urea Production, Sales, and Inventory - Supply - Production and Operation: This week, the domestic urea production volume is 134.86 million tons (Longzhong's data), an increase of 2.01 million tons compared with last week. The operation rate is 83.22%, an increase of 1.24% compared with last week. Among them, the operation rate of coal - based urea is 85.51%, and that of gas - based urea is 75.77%. The maintenance loss of domestic urea devices this week is 19.19 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons compared with last week [94][101]. - Demand - Agricultural Fertilization: No specific and useful information about agricultural fertilization demand is provided in the document. - Demand - Compound Fertilizers: This week, the market price of compound fertilizers has been stable with partial slight stability. The operation rate has increased by 1.98% to 43.48%, and the inventory has increased by 2.61 million tons to 82.65 million tons [117]. - Demand - Melamine: This week, the production volume of melamine is 24,800 tons, a decrease of 5500 tons compared with last week. The operation rate is 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28% compared with last week. The domestic melamine market has continued to rise, supported by the reduction in supply. However, the demand is still weak, and the support from raw materials is limited [128]. - Inventory: This week, the enterprise inventory is 113.43 million tons (Longzhong's data), a decrease of 1.37 million tons compared with last week, and the port inventory is 39.8 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared with last week. According to Baichuan's data, the enterprise inventory and port inventory also show different trends [139].