Ping An Securities·2025-08-18 02:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Geely Automobile [1][8] Core Views - The company achieved significant cost reduction effects, but still faces challenges in high-end market positioning [1][8] - In the first half of 2025, Geely's revenue reached 150.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 14% to 9.29 billion yuan [4][8] - The company aims to increase its annual sales target to 3 million units for 2025, reflecting strong demand for its economy models [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for Geely are as follows: 2023A: 179.2 billion yuan, 2024A: 240.2 billion yuan, 2025E: 320.5 billion yuan, 2026E: 371.0 billion yuan, 2027E: 410.9 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.1%, 34.0%, 33.4%, 15.7%, and 10.7% respectively [6][12] - Net profit projections are: 2023A: 5.3 billion yuan, 2024A: 16.6 billion yuan, 2025E: 15.9 billion yuan, 2026E: 16.7 billion yuan, 2027E: 19.8 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.9%, 213.3%, -4.0%, 4.6%, and 18.3% respectively [6][12] - The gross margin is expected to improve gradually, reaching 17.4% by 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to stabilize around 4.8% [6][12] Sales and Market Share - Geely's market share exceeded 10% for the first time in the first half of 2025, with a significant increase in sales of the Galaxy model, which saw a 232% year-on-year growth [7][8] - The company reported a total of 54.8 million units sold in the first half of 2025, with a notable performance in both fuel and electric vehicles [7][8] Cost Management and Profitability - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle decreased by 12.9% to 95,500 yuan, while the gross margin slightly declined by 0.3 percentage points to 16.4% [7][8] - The net profit per vehicle increased by 37% to 4,724 yuan, with the core net profit margin improving to 4.4% [7][8] Future Outlook - The report adjusts the profit forecast for Geely, estimating net profits of 15.96 billion yuan for 2025, 16.70 billion yuan for 2026, and 19.76 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a positive outlook despite competitive pressures [8][12]