申银万国期货早间策略-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy signals are clear, and the valuation starts to be repaired in advance, but the fundamentals have not been verified. The supporting effect of the policy end on the stock index will decrease in the later stage [2] - The stock index still maintains a good upward trend, and the market's enthusiasm for going long is high [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are supported by more science and innovation policies and may bring higher returns, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts increased, with the price increases of 20.40, 33.40, 38.80, and 42.00 for IF current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts respectively. The trading volumes were 13599.00, 90646.00, 28331.00, and 8179.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 18664.00, - 1010.00, 4354.00, and 1883.00 respectively [1] - IH Contracts: The closing prices of IH contracts increased, with price increases of 3.40, 9.60, 11.20, and 15.60 for IH current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts respectively. The trading volumes were 7048.00, 52795.00, 13707.00, and 3746.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 9100.00, - 406.00, 3833.00, and 1062.00 respectively [1] - IC Contracts: The closing prices of IC contracts increased, with price increases of 109.80, 134.80, 136.20, and 141.40 for IC current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts respectively. The trading volumes were 10893.00, 77380.00, 23724.00, and 10050.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 14200.00, 14105.00, 4243.00, and 2741.00 respectively [1] - IM Contracts: The closing prices of IM contracts increased, with price increases of 100.40, 150.00, 160.40, and 163.00 for IM current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts respectively. The trading volumes were 21170.00, 163237.00, 53477.00, and 19693.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 25264.00, 14638.00, 7010.00, and 4365.00 respectively [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, for example, the current value of the IF next month - current month spread was 4.40, and the previous value was - 8.80 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - Index Performance: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.79%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.12%, the CSI 500 index increased by 2.16%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 2.02% [1] - Industry Index Performance: Among different industries, the raw materials industry had a 1.38% increase, the industrial industry had a 0.93% increase, the optional consumption industry had a 0.61% increase, the information technology industry had a 1.68% increase, etc. Some industries such as the main consumption industry had a decline of - 0.15% [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between different stock index futures contracts and their corresponding spot indexes changed, for example, the basis between IF current month contract and CSI 300 index changed from - 0.71 two days ago to 2.65 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.60%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 1.08%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.61% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.98%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.71%, the DAX index decreased by 0.29%, and the S&P index decreased by 0.07% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on August 18, and if things go well, a tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be arranged. EU and NATO leaders will also participate in the meeting [2] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said that the international geopolitical situation is evolving, and US tariff measures will continue to suppress global trade. There are both challenges and opportunities, and Hong Kong should transform the tension in the economic transformation process into a driving force for economic upgrading [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, reiterated Ukraine's right to decide its own territorial issues, and said that the EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia to be announced in early September [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games ended successfully in Beijing on August 17. It was the world's first comprehensive sports event for humanoid robots, with 26 events, 487 matches, and teams from 16 countries participating. The World Humanoid Robot Sports Federation was officially established [2] - Thirteen wealth management companies including Everbright Wealth Management and Agricultural Bank of China Financial Management disclosed their 2025 H1 wealth management business reports. Eight companies' product scale increased, with BNP Paribas Agricultural Bank of China Financial Management leading with a 64.83% increase, while four companies' scale decreased, and Agricultural Bank of China Financial Management had the largest shrinkage of about 216.3 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [2] - Hainan Province issued a three - year action plan for high - quality development of marine tourism (2025 - 2027), deploying eight key actions, including building surfing, diving, and sea - fishing bases and developing the "low - altitude + ocean" tourism model [2]