Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views Macro Perspective - In China, economic growth in July showed a marginal slowdown, but a package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect. If economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [2]. - In the context of weakening consumption momentum and inflation concerns, the risk of a US economic downturn has significantly increased. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends, and Powell's speech may provide key guidance for subsequent monetary policies. In the short - term, the US dollar index may maintain a volatile pattern, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Equity Market - Last week, the stock index showed a volume - driven upward trend. Although there was no obvious positive fundamental drive, the market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to be in an upward - biased state, but trading should be cautious due to the lack of fundamental support [6]. Commodity Market - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are under pressure due to the US PPI significantly exceeding expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, or slightly strengthen. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, while alumina may show a weak - side shock, and cast aluminum alloy may also correct [9][13][14]. - Base Metals: Zinc prices are expected to be range - bound. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the ranges of [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan respectively. Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state. Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [18][21][23]. - Black Metals: Steel fundamentals are weakening, but there is still cost support. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are facing increasing supply pressure [30][31][37]. - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices face a medium - term risk of breaking down due to the lack of positive news from the US - Russia meeting and the weakening of geopolitical support. LPG fundamentals remain loose. PTA - PX suggests buying to expand processing fees at low prices. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [41][44][47]. - Other Commodities: PVC remains in a weak state. Pure benzene and styrene show a double - de - stocking trend. Fuel oil is still weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened. Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [58][60][62]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Market Information: China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown. The US retail sales in July increased, but consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. The "Trump - Putin meeting" took place, and there are expectations for a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party meeting. Trump may announce semiconductor tariffs in two weeks [1]. - Core Logic: Domestically, economic data in July slowed down, but policies are being implemented. Overseas, the September interest - rate cut is uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Market Review: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823 on the previous trading day, down 93 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1371, down 34 basis points [3]. - Core Logic: The US economic downturn risk is rising. The Jackson Hole meeting is crucial for observing policy trends. In the short - term, the US dollar index may fluctuate, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Stock Index - Market Review: Last Friday, the stock index rose with reduced volume. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly. In the futures market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM rose with increased volume [6]. - Core Logic: The stock index was driven by volume last week. Although there was no fundamental positive drive, market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to rise, but trading should be cautious [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold & Silver - Market Review: Last week, the precious metals market was under pressure. The increase in US PPI and inflation expectations cooled the interest - rate cut expectations [9]. - Funds and Inventory: Long - term fund holdings of gold and silver ETFs increased, while short - term non - commercial net long positions decreased. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories changed to different extents [10]. - Core Logic: In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Attention should be paid to US economic data and the Jackson Hole meeting [11]. Base Metals - Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai copper futures contract rose slightly during the week and then fell, closing at around 79,000 yuan per ton. Inventories in different markets changed [12]. - Core Logic: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate or slightly strengthen. The restart of the Chilean mine has limited impact on prices [13]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum: The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [14]. - Alumina: Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The market may shift to cost - based pricing, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock - adjustment state [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of scrap aluminum supports the price of cast aluminum alloy. The futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [16]. - Zinc - Market Review: The Shanghai zinc contract closed at 22,505 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [17]. - Core Logic: Zinc fundamentals remain unchanged, and prices are expected to be range - bound [18]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel - Market Review: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel contracts showed a pattern of rising and then falling during the week [19]. - Core Logic: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate in the [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan ranges respectively, with cost support [21]. - Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai tin futures contract rose and then fell slightly, closing at 266,000 yuan per ton. Inventories were relatively stable [23]. - Core Logic: Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the delay in the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines providing support [23]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Market Review: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and polysilicon futures fluctuated widely [24]. - Core Logic: Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [26]. - Lead - Market Review: The Shanghai lead contract closed at 16,850 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [27]. - Core Logic: Lead fundamentals are deadlocked, and prices are expected to be range - bound [28]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Review: The market showed a pattern of consolidation [29]. - Core Logic: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but there is cost support. The rebar 10 - contract is expected to have support around 3100, and hot - rolled coil around 3350 [30]. - Iron Ore - Core Logic: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is neutral, and the demand from molten iron provides support. The terminal demand has some problems in the rebar segment [31]. - Coking Coal and Coke - Market Review: Coking coal prices fluctuated, and coke prices rose for the sixth round. The double - coking futures fluctuated widely [33]. - Core Logic: The macro - sentiment may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to the changes in finished - product inventories. The supply of coking coal is in a tight - balance state, and coke supply has disturbing factors [33][34]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - Market Review: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed [35][36]. - Core Logic: The supply of ferroalloys is increasing, and the demand has certain support but also limitations. The prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [37]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Market Review: Crude oil prices showed a stop - falling adjustment after sideways trading, with the US and Brent crude oil futures prices falling [39]. - Core Logic: The US - Russia meeting did not bring positive news, and the geopolitical support for crude oil weakened. The medium - term risk of price breakdown is increasing [41]. - LPG - Market Review: LPG futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [42][43]. - Core Logic: LPG fundamentals remain loose, with the supply remaining high and the demand having a slight improvement [44]. - PTA - PX - Market Review: PX - PTA prices were range - bound, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [45][46]. - Core Logic: It is recommended to buy to expand PTA processing fees at low prices, as PTA processing fees are at a historical low [47]. - MEG - Bottle - Grade Chips - Market Review: MEG prices were range - bound, with changes in inventory and device operations [48]. - Core Logic: MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [49][50]. - Methanol - Market Review: Methanol 09 contract prices changed, and the inventory in different ports increased [51]. - Core Logic: The 09 contract may gradually return to fundamental pricing. The best buying point for the 01 contract needs to be waited for [52]. - PP - Market Review: PP futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [53]. - Core Logic: PP is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand - end and cost - end changes [54]. - PE - Market Review: PE futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [55]. - Core Logic: As the peak season approaches, PE demand is slowly recovering. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and the subsequent trend depends on the demand recovery [56]. - PVC - Market Review: PVC supply, demand, export, inventory, and price data changed [57]. - Core Logic: PVC remains in a weak state, with the threat of large - scale delivery in August and weak fundamentals [58]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Review: Pure benzene and styrene futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased [60][61]. - Core Logic: Pure benzene is expected to be range - bound, and styrene's supply surplus has decreased. Short - term unilateral short - selling of styrene should be cautious [60][62]. - Fuel Oil - Market Review: High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [63][65]. - Core Logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is still weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened [64][65]. - Asphalt - Market Review: Asphalt futures and spot prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [66]. - Core Logic: Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. The demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortages [66]. - Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Market Review: Rubber futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [67]. - Core Logic: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15700 - 16100, with cost support and inventory pressure [69].
金融期货早评-20250818
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-18 03:00