铅锌日评：区间整理-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For the lead market, supply and demand are both increasing, there is no obvious contradiction, raw material tightness and peak - season expectations support lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, macro "anti - involution" sentiment in China is fluctuating, the zinc market has an increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply, demand is in the off - season, inventory continues to accumulate, and overseas LME zinc inventory is decreasing, providing some support. Short - term zinc prices are expected to move in a range [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,700 yuan/ton with 0.00% change, Shanghai lead futures main contract closing price is 16,850 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, and the basis is - 150 yuan/ton with a - 80 yuan change [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume is 32,601 lots with a - 28.53% change, and the position is 51,207 lots with a - 0.32% change [1]. - LME inventory is 261,100 tons with 0.00% change, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 61,784 tons with 0.00% change [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 1,981 dollars/ton with a - 0.45% change, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.51 with a 0.93% increase [1]. Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the weekly operating rate of SMM primary lead enterprises was 68.07%, a 0.67 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of secondary lead enterprises was 41%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of lead battery enterprises was 67.3%, a 2.05 - percentage - point increase [1]. - On August 14th, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.87 dollars/ton, and the position was 154,530 lots, an increase of 682 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise and difficult to fall, but it has not had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Previously - shut - down smelters are gradually resuming production, and primary lead operations are rising steadily [1]. - For secondary lead, the price of waste lead batteries is likely to rise and difficult to fall, recyclers' supplies are limited, and stores are reluctant to sell due to bullish sentiment. Some smelters have cut or stopped production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversion, with overall operations at a relatively low level and firm quotations, and a slight decline in operations [1]. - On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and production enterprises produce according to sales [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 22,380 yuan/ton with a - 0.27% change, Shanghai zinc futures main contract closing price is 22,505 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase, and the basis is - 125 yuan/ton with a - 85 yuan change [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume is 83,222 lots with a 6.65% increase, and the position is 76,347 lots with a - 5.51% change [1]. - LME inventory is 76,325 tons with 0.00% change, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 20,020 tons with a 17.10% increase [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,796.5 dollars/ton with a - 1.62% change, and the Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 8.05 with a 1.76% increase [1]. Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the weekly operating rate of galvanized enterprises was 58.54%, a 1.19 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises was 47.61%, a 0.81 - percentage - point decrease; the weekly operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises was 56.95%, a 1.27 - percentage - point increase [1]. - Last week, the total inventory of zinc concentrate at major Chinese ports was 354,000 physical tons, a 46,000 - ton increase from the previous week [1]. - On August 14th, [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 40.87 dollars/ton, and the position was 154,530 lots, an increase of 682 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc ore processing fees are rising continuously. Last week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees remained flat at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc ore processing fee index rose to 90.3 dollars/dry ton. With continuous easing of raw materials, zinc concentrate processing fees are expected to continue rising in August, cost - side support is weakening, smelter profits and production enthusiasm are improving, and production volume is showing an obvious upward trend [1]. - On the demand side, last week zinc prices fluctuated within a narrow range, downstream enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory. The price of black metals showed a good trend, and some end - users stocked up due to concerns about future production cuts, driving an increase in galvanized operations [1].