供应宽松格局，价格震荡下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Urea Futures Main Contract Trend: From August 11th to 14th, the main contract UR2601 of urea futures oscillated downward, with an interval decline of 0.80% and an interval amplitude of 2.72% [7]. - Urea Futures Basis Situation: On August 13th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to last Wednesday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years [16]. - Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 19.19 tons, a 4.48% decrease compared to the previous period and a 21.83% decrease year - on - year [18]. - Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.1 million tons, a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly output of urea produced from pipeline fertilizer - using gas is 290,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period. The supply pattern remains loose [20]. Demand - side - Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate: According to Zhuochuang Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024 [23]. - Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 826,500 tons, a 3.26% increase compared to the previous period and a 12.68% increase compared to 2024 [25]. - Melamine Operating Rate: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [29]. Inventory - side - Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory: Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period [32]. Cost - side - Synthetic Ammonia Price: On August 14th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase compared to August 7th [38]. - Coal Market Operation: With the restorative rebound of the low - end price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. Currently, the aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [40]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Date | Beginning Inventory (kt) | Production (kt) | Total Supply (kt) | Consumption (kt) | Export (kt) | Total Demand (kt) | Ending Inventory (kt) | Supply - Demand Ratio (%) | Price (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 10E | 1437 | 6200 | 7638 | 5200 | 500 | 5700 | 603 | 134 | 1800 | | 2025 - 09E | 1037 | 6300 | 7338 | 4900 | 1000 | 5900 | 1437 | 124.37 | 1750 | | 2025 - 08E | 757 | 6270 | 7028 | 4570 | 1100 | 5670 | 1037 | 123.95 | 1830 | | 2025 July | 931 | 6093 | 7025 | 5890 | 700 | 6590 | 1757 | 106.6 | 1817.22 | | 2025 June | 840 | 6146 | 6986.03 | 6159 | 66.24 | 6225.24 | 931 | 112.22 | 1838.8 | | 2025 May | 865 | 6366 | 7231.22 | 6391.2 | 2.44 | 6393.64 | 840 | 113.1 | 1912.94 | | 2025 April | 805 | 6004 | 6809.42 | 5944.4 | 2.25 | 5946.65 | 865 | 114.51 | 1894.95 | | 2025 March | 1266 | 6219 | 7485.04 | 6680 | 2.3 | 6682.3 | 805 | 112.01 | 1867.78 | | 2025 February | 1499 | 5551 | 7050.34 | 5784.3 | 1.36 | 5785.66 | 1266 | 121.86 | 1776.73 | | 2025 January | 1378 | 5719 | 7097.25 | 5598.2 | 2.65 | 5600.85 | 1499 | 126.72 | 1695.43 | | 2024 December | 1191 | 5463 | 6654.24 | 5275.7 | 2.27 | 5277.97 | 1378 | 126.08 | 1819.64 | | 2024 November | 1135 | 5421 | 6556.1 | 5365 | 2.22 | 5367.22 | 1191 | 122.15 | 1868.4 | | 2024 October | 903 | 5841 | 6744.08 | 5600 | 3.5 | 5612.5 | 1135 | 120.16 | 1900.26 | [44] 3.3 Future Outlook - Supply - side: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years. Driven by the continuous efforts of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, it has become normal for production enterprises to operate at high loads, and the overall supply of urea will continue the loose pattern. In the short term, the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly [49]. - Demand - side: Currently, it is the traditional off - season for demand. The downstream market generally has a wait - and - see attitude, mainly following up with rigid demand, and has no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024; the panel industry is still in the traditional off - season, and the average operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [49]. - Inventory - side: The overall inventory pressure still exists. Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; with the orderly collection of goods at the port, the current port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period. As the preparation and production of autumn fertilizers gradually start, it is expected that the enterprise inventory will first increase and then decrease [49]. - Cost - side: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with the increase or decrease of demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [49]. - Operation Suggestion: In general, the current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49].