SH周报：近端现货再起是拐头还是抵抗？-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upside space for caustic soda is limited, with pressure at the 2,800 price level for the SH509 contract. The market is mainly driven by potential negative feedback on the operating rate due to price drops and the impact of domestic demand. Without significant event shocks, the upside for the near - term is expected to be limited [3]. - The rebound of caustic soda futures this week was mainly due to the approaching delivery of the near - term contract and the strengthening of the near - term spot, which pushed up the market expectations. However, the subsequent upward potential depends on the verification of the peak season [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - The domestic low - concentration caustic soda market price increased week - on - week. In Shandong, the average price of 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda rose from 836 yuan/ton (converted to 2,618.75 yuan/ton in 100% purity) at the beginning of the week to 847 yuan/ton (2,646.875 yuan/ton in 100% purity) at the end of the week. The price increase was due to factors such as new orders, improved delivery, and reduced inventory pressure [11]. - The price of 50% caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions also showed certain trends, and the report provided historical price data for different regions and types of caustic soda [17][22][23]. 3.2 Price Difference - Model Price Difference: The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions were presented, along with historical data [33]. - Regional Price Difference: The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions were analyzed, and historical data were provided [33]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda production was estimated to be 82.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13% [50]. - Some enterprises in Hubei and Zhejiang completed their maintenance, while some in Jiangxi and Hunan started maintenance, with the overall maintenance impact decreasing compared to last week [50]. - The report also provided information on the operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda, and the production and maintenance plans of different enterprises [51][56][60]. 3.4 Demand - Alumina: This week, the profit margin of alumina was acceptable, and the operating capacity remained at a high level. As of August 14, China's alumina installed capacity was 114.8 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.2 million tons and an operating rate of 82.93%. However, there was a possibility of subsequent production cuts [63]. - Viscose Staple Fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% [63]. - Printing and Dyeing Industry: As of August 14, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 61.46%, a week - on - week increase of 2.19%. The industry showed a mild recovery [63]. 3.5 Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 275,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%. The inventory in North China increased, while that in Northeast, Central, and East China decreased [77]. - The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 25,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.3% due to slow sales and increased supply [77]. 3.6 Valuation - The production cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market had a slight increase this week, and the动力煤 market price rose slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side was compressed [81][82]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report provided data on the benchmark spot price of PVC, the weekly operating rate of PVC powder, and the comprehensive profit of calcium carbide - based and northwest integrated chlor - alkali. It also presented information on the capacity utilization rate and production profit of products such as propylene oxide and epichlorohydrin [94][95][100].