美俄关系向好，金价承压

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price was under pressure, with New York gold falling below the $3,400 mark. The easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia and the Russia-Ukraine situation over the weekend was negative for the gold price. Technically, New York gold was at the high end of the trading range since the second quarter, and there was strong willingness among long positions to liquidate [3][27]. - The expectation of a Fed rate cut may increase as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is positive for the gold price. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held from August 21st to 23rd, and attention can be paid to the speech of Fed Chairman Powell [3][27]. - Overall, the easing of geopolitical tensions puts pressure on the gold price, while the increasing expectation of a US rate cut provides support. It is expected that the gold price will fluctuate weakly [3][27]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold, but no specific summary of the weekly trend is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From August 8th to August 15th, COMEX gold decreased by 2.21% from $3,458.20 to $3,381.70, COMEX silver decreased by 1.27% from $38.51 to $38.02, SHFE gold main contract decreased by 1.52% from 787.80 to 775.80, and SHFE silver main contract decreased by 0.80% from 9,278.00 to 9,204.00. The US dollar index decreased by 0.42% from 98.26 to 97.85, the 10-year US Treasury real yield increased by 0.07 from 1.88 to 1.95, the S&P 500 increased by 0.94% from 6,389.45 to 6,449.80, and the US crude oil continuous decreased by 0.33% from 63.35 to 63.14. The COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.95% from 89.80 to 88.95, and the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.73% from 84.91 to 84.29. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 5.73 from 959.64 to 965.37, and the iShare Gold ETF increased by 0.68 from 452.61 to 453.29 [8] 2. Gold Price Reached a High and Then Fell - Last week, the gold price was under pressure and declined. On one hand, US President Trump refuted rumors about gold tariffs; on the other hand, the expectation of the US-Russia meeting led to a relaxation of geopolitical tensions. Additionally, the gold price reached a high and then fell, and New York gold was still in the trading range since the second quarter, facing significant technical pressure [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of August 12th, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 4,079 contracts, short positions increased by 3,486 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 7,565 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than gold ETFs, but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [16] - Recently, the changes in precious metal ETFs have been relatively small [18] - Last week, the gold-silver ratio decreased as the gold price weakened [21] - Last week, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased, while the 2-year US Treasury yield remained stable, and the 10-2 year spread widened [22] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, stating that the easing of geopolitical tensions puts pressure on the gold price, while the increasing expectation of a US rate cut provides support. It is expected that the gold price will fluctuate weakly [3][27]