Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [3][4][13]. - China's "dual discount interest" policy has been implemented to boost domestic demand, and the probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. - China's economic data in July was affected by multiple factors, but it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [8][10][12]. - In the short - term, geopolitical risk premiums have temporarily ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US CPI in July was slightly lower than expected, but core CPI reached a new high for the second time this year. PPI exceeded expectations, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, the highest since February [3]. - The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is gradually emerging, and the upward pressure on commodity inflation will continue to accumulate. The price of the service industry in July significantly contributed to inflation, and the pressure on CPI to rise in the coming months is increasing [3][4]. - Although inflation data shows signs of an uptick, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September. The market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude, and inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [4]. 1.2 Implementation of the "Dual Discount Interest" Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - The "dual discount interest" policy of personal consumer loan discount interest and service industry business entity loan discount interest has been launched, which forms a synergy to stimulate consumption with other policies. It helps improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [5]. - In the future, the policy may continue to explore the synergy between fiscal funds and financial resources, and the weight of structural tools and special fiscal policies may increase. The probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. 1.3 China's Economic Situation in July - China's economic data in July showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with a more obvious slowdown in domestic demand. Consumption recovery momentum weakened marginally, investment remained weak, and financial data also showed slow demand - side repair [8][10][11]. - Although China's economy is affected by multiple temporary factors in the short - term, it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [12]. 1.4 Next Week's Key Points - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [13]. - The short - term geopolitical risk premium from the US - Russia summit has ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain liquidity, promote reasonable price increases, and release consumption potential. This week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [17]. - The "dual discount interest" policy has been introduced, with a 1 - percentage - point annual discount interest rate. The personal consumer loan discount interest policy has a cumulative discount interest cap of 3000 yuan per borrower, and the service industry business entity loan discount interest policy has a maximum loan scale of 1 million yuan per household [17]. - China's deflation pressure eased slightly in July. CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI was negative for 34 consecutive months, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest in 17 months [17]. - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The "national subsidy" funds of 138 billion yuan were issued, and the automobile sales volume increased by 14.7% year - on - year [17][18]. - From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [18]. - China and the US suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 11.8% year - on - year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - In the US, the PPI in July increased significantly, with a 3.3% year - on - year increase. CPI was flat compared to the previous month, slightly lower than expected, while core CPI reached a five - month high, higher than expected [19]. - After the release of the US CPI data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.1%. Trump nominated E·J·Anthony as the next director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and expanded the list of candidates for the Fed chairman [19]. - The EU plans to formulate the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and provide more military assistance to Ukraine. The Japanese central bank is under pressure to abandon an inflation indicator to pave the way for an interest rate hike [19]. - Trump said he would not impose tariffs on gold. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade team will meet with China in the next two or three months. The US - Russia summit has not reached an agreement but is close [20]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - On August 18, the US will release the NAHB housing market index for August. - On August 20, China will release the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August, and the eurozone will release the CPI and core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month for July, as well as the preliminary PMI values for August. - On August 21, the US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, the Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values for August, and the year - on - year total of existing home sales in July. - From August 22 to 23, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held (to be determined). [21]
宏观周度观察:美俄短期风险下降,市场聚焦定价美联储降息幅度-20250818
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-08-18 03:06