棉花周报：USDA报告超预期利多确定美棉下方支撑-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The USDA August report shows a significant reduction in the US cotton planting and harvest areas due to drought, leading to a 302,000 - ton decrease in US cotton production to 2.877 million tons, while China's cotton production increases by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and global cotton production decreases by 391,000 tons month - on - month [6]. - Cotton demand is weak. Cotton prices are weaker than cotton yarn this week, with weak spot transaction prices. Spinning mills' inventory pressure has eased, and weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased [6]. - Cotton inventory is decreasing. The BCO reported that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The destocking speed is accelerating [6]. - The strategy is that there may be one more decline in the short - term for single - side trading, but in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy Zhengzhou cotton at low prices after the concentrated supply pressure is realized, as the USDA report is unexpectedly bullish and has established the lower support for US cotton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - Supply: The USDA August report shows that the US cotton planting area is reduced by 8% to 9.3 million acres, and the harvest area is reduced by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The national cotton abandonment rate rises from 14% to 21% due to drought in the Southwest. US cotton production decreases by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons, China's production increases by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and global production decreases by 391,000 tons month - on - month [6]. - Demand: Cotton prices are weaker than cotton yarn this week, with weak spot transaction prices. In the off - season, spinning mills' stocking willingness remains low, and their inventory pressure has eased. Weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness has slightly increased, and their inventory pressure has also decreased. Spinning profits have slightly expanded, and the loss in inland areas has decreased [6]. - Inventory: The BCO reported that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The destocking speed is the fastest this year. Spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory continues to decline. Inland yarn mills' operation rate is still weak, with high finished - product inventory and decreasing raw - material inventory in the industrial chain [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 15, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 7,829, with 249 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 323,100 tons, the same as on August 8 [6]. - Basis: The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remains firm, and the spot transaction price drops with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang for the 09 contract is 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. - Cost: The average cost of ginning mills this year is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. With some ginning mills in northern Xinjiang exiting and the poor overall demand outlook, the expected opening price for the new season is not high [6]. - Macro: Domestically, the economy shows a weak recovery pattern with insufficient effective demand. Overseas, the US economy is still in a downward channel, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut likely in September with a probability of over 90% [6]. - Strategy: There may be one more decline in the short - term for single - side trading, but in the medium - term, it is advisable to buy Zhengzhou cotton at low prices after the concentrated supply pressure is realized [6]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the global cotton supply - demand situation shows changes in various aspects such as initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory ratio. For example, the global production in 2025/26 (August) is 25.392 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 548,000 tons [10]. - Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes: The production of main cotton - producing countries like China, the US, India, etc., shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. For example, China's production in 2025/26 is 6.858 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.56% [11]. - Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes: The consumption of main cotton - consuming countries shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. For example, global consumption in 2025/26 is 25.688 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.02% [12]. - US Cotton: The overall US inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is shifting from three - year destocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to factors such as the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks and tariff relaxation, the continuous restocking behavior is somewhat weakened [18]. - Domestic Situation: The new - season domestic cotton planting area is expected to expand, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas. The cotton commercial inventory in China is being destocked at a fast speed [22][24][40].