华龙期货螺纹周报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the steel industry is ★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the steel price had a short - term decline, but the outlook for the black sector remains bullish. It is expected that the steel price will show a moderately bullish and volatile trend in the medium term [5][35] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures Price: Involves the daily K - line chart of the main contract of rebar futures [6] - Spot Price: As of August 15, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin was 3,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous trading day [12] - Basis and Spread: No specific analysis results are provided, only the topic is mentioned [13] Important Market Information - From January to July, national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%; residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. In July, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend [16] - On August 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China carried out a 500 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 6 months [16] Supply - side Situation - Mysteel's survey shows that the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%. The average daily hot metal output was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.189 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year increase of 61.04% [5][33] - In July, China's steel output was 122.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; from January to July, the steel output was 860.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. In July, China's crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%; from January to July, the crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In July, China's pig iron output was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%; from January to July, the pig iron output was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3% [5][33] - In early August, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.7% month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel was 2.68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.7%; the daily output of pig iron was 2.33 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%; and the daily output of steel was 4.13 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% [34] Demand - side Situation - As of July 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 50.6, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%; the current value of the purchasing manager's index for the steel circulation industry was 49.8, a month - on - month increase of 4.2% [25] Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 138.1927 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.3467 million tons, an increase of 0.1282 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 93, a decrease of 12. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 143.8157 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.143 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.468 million tons, an increase of 0.1035 million tons [33] 后市展望 - Last week, the steel price had a short - term decline, but the black sector is still expected to be bullish. It is expected that the steel price will show a moderately bullish and volatile trend in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - Single - sided: It is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [5][37] - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [5][37] - Options: Consider selling put options [5][37]