白糖周报：郑糖如期反弹，仍有空间-20250818

Report Title - "Sugar Weekly Report" [1] Report Core View - The 01 contract of sugar has rebounded as expected and is expected to have further upward space. The current price of the 01 contract has a large discount, and the futures price will first repair part of the discount upwards. The sugar fundamentals are showing signs of improvement, and there is still further upward momentum [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - Supply: China's sugar imports in June 2025 reached 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.71% and a year - on - year increase of 1434.86%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7%. The time of import volume arrival is delayed, and the subsequent pressure is still high, but the staggered supply of processed sugar and domestic sugar eases the impact [10]. - Demand: The price of processed sugar has gradually stabilized, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up, accelerating the inventory removal process in production areas, and the overall spot trading is fair [10]. - Inventory: The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level. The shipping volume from Brazil in July is low, and the arrival after August is expected to be lower than expected, so the pressure on processed sugar is not large [10]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 15, the registered sugar warehouse receipts were 17,104, with 0 valid forecasts, a total of 17,104, compared with 18,545 last week [10]. - Basis: The basis is upward. The spot prices in various regions are stable, and the recent linkage between futures and spot prices has strengthened, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up and accelerating the inventory removal process in production areas [10]. - Profit: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil is about 5,578 yuan/ton, with a slight increase, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat [10]. - Macro: Domestically, the economy shows a weak recovery pattern, and there are expectations of more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut likely in September [10]. 02 Sugar Market News This Week - Brazil: It is estimated that the sugarcane planting area in 2025 will be 9.241643 million hectares, a 0.2% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.8% increase from the previous year. The sugarcane production is estimated to be 695.085205 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous month's estimate but a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production decreased by 9.22% year - on - year [15]. - India: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons, and the total planting area is estimated to be about 5.724 million hectares, slightly higher than that in the 2024/25 season [16]. 03 Weekly Sugar Data - Domestic Production: In the 2024 - 2025 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons and a growth rate of 12.03% [20]. - Domestic Sales: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,520 tons and a growth rate of 7.34%. The cumulative sales rate was 74.11%, a slowdown of 2.54 percentage points year - on - year. The cumulative sales of sugar reached 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons and a growth rate of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, an acceleration of 6.52 percentage points year - on - year [24][27]. - Domestic Substitute Imports: In June 2025, the total imports of domestic substitute syrups and premixes were 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons [34]. - Out - of - Quota Import Cost: The out - of - quota import cost decreased slightly this week [38]. - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: The number of warehouse receipts has declined from a high level. As of August 15, the total number of registered warehouse receipts was 17,104 [42].