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申万期货品种策略日报:贵金属-20250818
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo·2025-08-18 03:18

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week's unexpected inflation data pressured gold and silver. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, far higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and 3.3% year - on - year, hitting a five - month high, cooling the expectation of significant interest rate cuts. However, the employment market's weakening may support gold and silver prices. The overall trade environment is still deteriorating, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" is pushing up the US fiscal deficit expectation. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, and gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts warms up [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 775.08 and 777.18 respectively, with price drops of - 0.72 and - 0.62, and declines of - 0.09% and - 0.08%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9217.00 and 9236.00 respectively, with price increases of 13.00 and 10.00, and rises of 0.14% and 0.11% [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 160609 and 30505, and the open interests are 197655 and 131073. The trading volumes of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 420183 and 93581, and the open interests are 346128 and 224024 [2] - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premiums and discounts of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 1.99 and - 4.09, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 29.00 and - 48.00 [2] Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 773.09, 770.26, and 9188.00 respectively. The price changes are - 2.01, 0.47, and - 86.00, and the changes are - 0.26%, 0.06%, and - 0.93%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver is 37.99, with a price increase of 0.01 and a rise of 0.03% [2] - Price Ratios and Spreads: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.10, 19, 84.14, 7.21, and 7.52 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 2.00, 22, 83.58, 7.23, and 7.60 [2] Inventory - Inventory Changes: The current inventories of SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 36,345 kg, 1,141,555 kg, 38,636,332, and 507,551,254 respectively. The changes are - (no change), - 9,227.00 kg, - 6,088.67, and 536643 [2] Related Markets - Indices and Yields: The current values of the US Dollar Index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury Yield, Brent Crude Oil, and USD/CNY are 97.8467, 6449.8, 4.33, 66.13, and 7.1891 respectively. The changes are - 0.36%, - 0.29%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.09% [2] Derivatives - ETF and CFTC Positions: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2] Macro News - Geopolitical News: US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on August 18, and there may be a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Russia has made "some concessions" on five Ukrainian regions, and Putin has agreed to include a "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee clause in the future peace agreement. The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [3] - Economic Data: The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year, far higher than expectations. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, slightly higher than expected. The July non - farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the previous value was significantly revised down [3]