新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-18）-20250818

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: High-level volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: High-level volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile and bullish [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 300 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 500 Index: Volatile [4] - CSI 1000 Index: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Weakening [4] - Gold: High-level volatile [4] - Silver: High-level volatile [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Edible oils: Volatile and bullish [6] - Soybean meal: Bullish and volatile [8] - Rapeseed meal: Bullish and volatile [8] - Soybean No. 2: Bullish and volatile [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Livestock: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rubber: Volatile [10] - PX: Wait-and-see [10] - PTA: Volatile [10] - MEG: Buy on dips [10] - PR: Wait-and-see [10] - PF: Wait-and-see [11] Core Views - The short-term recovery of the manufacturing industry has been interrupted, and the ZZJ meeting fell short of expectations. The domestic supply policy expectations have been temporarily falsified, leading to intensified capital-level gaming and market correction due to expectation deviations. The iron ore market is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. The coking coal and coke market is supported by supply-side factors, and it is recommended to buy on dips after corrections. The steel market is supported by macro and policy factors in the short term, and it is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels. The glass market is affected by market sentiment and inventory digestion, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly in the long term. The stock index market is expected to rise, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The bond market is affected by interest rate changes, and it is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position. The precious metal market is affected by factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical conflicts, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level. The pulp market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to consolidate. The log market is affected by seasonal factors and supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. The edible oil market is supported by factors such as export demand and policy, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish. The meal market is affected by factors such as planting area and weather, and the price is expected to be bullish and volatile. The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and price trends, and the price is expected to be volatile. The soft commodity market is affected by factors such as weather and inventory, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polyester market is affected by factors such as oil prices and supply and demand, and the price is expected to be volatile [2][4][6][8][10][11]. Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments decreased slightly month-on-month but were stronger year-on-year. Domestic arrivals decreased month-on-month, and port inventories increased slightly. Terminal demand was weak, and steel mills had limited motivation to cut production actively. There are expectations of production cuts in the northern region in late August, and the short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, with the market expected to be volatile at a high level [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the trading limit for the main coking coal futures contract. The demand for real estate and infrastructure was weak, and coking coal prices adjusted slightly. The recovery of coal mines was slow, and coal inventories reached the lowest level since March 2024. Downstream enterprises maintained high operating rates, and coal prices were supported in the short term. To break through the previous high, continuous supply reduction is needed [2]. - Rebar: There were news of production restrictions for independent steel rolling enterprises in Tangshan, leading to expectations of supply reduction. Building material demand decreased month-on-month, and external demand was overdrawn in advance. Real estate investment continued to decline, and overall demand was difficult to show an anti-seasonal performance. The profits of the five major steel products were acceptable, and production increased slightly while apparent demand decreased. Steel mill inventories increased rapidly, and social inventories increased. During the military parade in mid-August, there were expectations of supply contraction, and the overall inventory pressure in the steel market was not significant. There are still expectations of stable growth in the steel industry in the short term, and it is advisable to try to go long on RB2601 at low levels [2]. - Glass: Market sentiment cooled, and the midstream and downstream were in the stage of digesting previous inventories, with significantly weakened restocking demand. There were no changes in production lines, and the operating rate remained stable. Weekly production remained unchanged, and factory inventories continued to increase. It is unlikely for glass factories to stop production during the military parade, and the market is affected by many factors. The midstream and downstream inventories are low, but the rigid demand has not recovered. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and glass demand is difficult to recover significantly [2]. - Soda ash: The recent trading focus is on "anti-involution + stable growth." After the short-term emotion is released and the market adjusts again, attention should be paid to whether the actual demand can improve [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.70%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.12%, the CSI 500 Index rose 2.16%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.02%. Funds flowed into the securities and power equipment sectors and out of the banking and soft drink equipment sectors. The article in Qiushi Magazine emphasized promoting the healthy and high-quality development of the private economy. In July, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year-on-year. From January to July, national fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12%. The market's bullish sentiment increased, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond rose 1bp, FR007 rose 1bp, and SHIBOR3M remained flat. The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 238 billion yuan on August 15. The market interest rate rebounded, and the bond market declined. It is recommended to hold long positions in bonds with a light position [4]. Precious Metals - Gold: In a high-interest-rate environment and the context of globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from being centered on real interest rates to being centered on central bank gold purchases. Trump's bill may exacerbate the US debt problem, highlighting the de-fiat currency attribute of gold. In the global high-interest-rate environment, the substitution effect of gold for bonds weakens, and its sensitivity to the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds decreases. Geopolitical risks have weakened marginally, but market risk aversion still exists. China's physical gold demand has increased significantly, and the central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for eight consecutive months. The logic driving the current gold price increase has not completely reversed, and the Fed's interest rate policy and tariff policy may be short-term disturbing factors. It is expected that the Fed's interest rate policy will be more cautious this year, and tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts will dominate market risk aversion. The latest US data shows that the labor market is unexpectedly weak, and inflation data has slowed down. In the short term, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has decreased, and the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level [4][6]. - Silver: The price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, affected by factors similar to those of gold [6]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The spot market price was mainly consolidating. The latest quoted prices for coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased, weakening the cost support for pulp prices. The profitability of the papermaking industry was low, and paper mills had high inventory pressure and low acceptance of high-priced pulp. Demand was in the off-season, and the market was in a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to consolidate [6]. - Logs: The average daily shipment volume at ports remained flat week-on-week. Demand was in the seasonal off-season, but as the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" approached, the willingness of processing plants to stock up increased. The shipment volume from New Zealand to China in July increased by 5% month-on-month, and the expected arrivals in August were low. The expected arrivals last week decreased by 60% week-on-week, and supply pressure was not significant. Port inventories decreased, and spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The cost side provided stronger support, and the price is expected to be volatile [6]. Edible Oils and Meals - Edible oils: In July, Malaysian palm oil continued to increase production and inventory, but the ending inventory of 2.11 million tons was far lower than market expectations. The export volume from August 1 to 15 increased by 16.5% - 21.3% month-on-month, and the demand was strong. Indonesia's biodiesel policy provided long-term support for prices. In China, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in August remained high, and the oil mill operating rate was high. Although the export of domestic soybean oil to India increased, the inventory accumulation trend of oil mills could not be stopped. Palm oil inventories may increase, rapeseed oil inventories continued to decrease, and the demand is expected to pick up with the approaching of the double festivals. The preliminary anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed by the Ministry of Commerce boosted rapeseed oil prices. Supported by factors such as soybean raw material costs, external palm oil prices, and demand recovery, edible oil prices are expected to be volatile and bullish, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [6]. - Meals: The USDA significantly reduced the planting area of US soybeans. Although the yield per unit increased significantly, the initial inventory, production, and ending inventory of US soybeans all decreased. Most US soybeans are in the critical pod-setting stage, and there are concerns about the hot and dry weather in some areas in the Midwest, which may affect yields. The anti-dumping measures against Canadian rapeseed imports increased import costs, and the market was worried about supply reduction. However, Brazil had a bumper soybean harvest, and the production outlook for US soybeans was strong. The high premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly declined, but it is difficult to change the pattern before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, providing strong cost support for domestic soybean meal. The arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is high, and the oil mill operating rate is generally high. Soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and downstream purchasing sentiment has returned to caution. The price is expected to be bullish and volatile, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean-producing areas and the arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Livestock: On the supply side, the average trading weight of pigs across the country continued to decline. Due to factors such as high temperatures and the positive price difference between fat and standard pigs, slaughterhouses increased the purchase of low-priced standard pigs, and the overall purchase weight decreased. It is expected that the trading weight in most areas will continue to decline. On the demand side, the settlement price of pigs at key slaughterhouses last week showed a downward trend. Affected by factors such as the accelerated slaughter rhythm of farmers and high temperatures affecting terminal consumption, slaughterhouses pressured prices. The average operating rate of key slaughterhouses increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs fluctuated. In the context of increasing supply and restricted consumption demand, the weekly average price of pigs is expected to remain volatile [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The impact of weather on the main natural rubber production areas has weakened, but geopolitical conflicts still slightly disrupt rubber tapping. In the Yunnan production area, the profit from rubber tapping increased slightly, and the tight supply of raw materials supported high purchase prices. In the Hainan production area, the weather was good, but the glue output was lower than expected. Driven by the futures market, local processing plants were more active in purchasing, and raw material purchase prices increased. In Thailand, the price of cup lump rubber continued to rise, but profits continued to narrow, and geopolitical conflicts restricted rubber tapping progress in some areas. In the Vietnamese production area, the weather was good, and raw material prices also rose. The utilization rate of the sample semi-steel tire enterprises in China decreased slightly, and the utilization rate of the sample all-steel tire enterprises increased slightly. The inventory at Qingdao Port decreased, and the market is still in a situation of oversupply, but the gap has narrowed. As the geopolitical situation is expected to ease and rainfall increases in the production areas, the supply of raw materials is expected to be tight, driving up rubber prices. Domestic spot inventories are expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [10]. Polyester - PX: The expectation of easing the Russia-Ukraine situation continued to put pressure on oil prices, and oil prices declined. The PTA load fluctuated, and the polyester load rebounded. The short-term supply and demand of near-month PX were slightly weaker but still tight, and the PXN spread was relatively strong. PX prices fluctuated with oil prices [10]. - PTA: Oil prices fluctuated significantly, and although the PXN spread was strong, cost support was average. PTA supply gradually recovered, and the load of downstream polyester factories began to rebound, improving the supply and demand situation. In the short term, PTA prices will mainly fluctuate with costs [10]. - MEG: Port inventories may have continued to increase slightly last week. Terminal demand was sluggish, domestic production gradually recovered, and imports fluctuated, increasing supply pressure. In the medium term, MEG supply and demand are expected to be in a balanced state. In the short term, cost fluctuations are large, and low inventories support the futures price. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - PR: The supply of polyester bottle chips was stable, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid restocking at low prices. The peak season performance was poor, and purchases were cautious. The market is expected to be weak with cost fluctuations [11]. - PF: The decline in oil prices dragged down polyester costs, and there was no significant positive support for the fundamentals of short fibers. Prices are expected to decline with raw materials [11].