铜周报20250817：供需矛盾有限，宏观向上，盘面震荡偏强-20250818

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250817: Limited Supply - Demand Contradiction, Upward Macro, and Bullish Oscillation in the Market [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction of copper is limited, the macro - economic situation is upward, and the copper futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] Key Points by Section Price Data - The spot supply of copper is tight, the purchasing sentiment has increased, and the spot premium has risen [10] - The LME copper 0 - 3M spread has continued to widen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index has increased by $0.38 per ton week - on - week to - $37.68 per ton, showing a recovery but still remaining low [15] - The copper concentrate inventory at nine ports has decreased by 62,000 tons week - on - week to 557,600 tons [17] - The spread between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - Only one domestic smelter is under maintenance in August, but the number of smelters with production cuts has increased, and the electrolytic copper output is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [20] - The copper import window has opened [21] - The week - on - week change in the electrolytic copper spot inventory is limited, while the bonded - area inventory has continued to increase [23] - The LME copper inventory has hardly changed, and the COMEX copper inventory has continued to accumulate [25] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods has increased, and downstream purchases have increased [27] - From August 1st to 10th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China have increased by 6% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [28] - The overall production volume of photovoltaic modules in August has changed little month - on - month [31] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August has decreased by 4.9% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year, with the air - conditioner production volume decreasing by 2.8% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan [36] - The US CPI in July has increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; the PPI has increased by 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [39] - Two new candidates for the Fed Chair support significant interest - rate cuts [40]