Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - 7 - month macro - data showed a weakening pattern in both supply and demand, affected by multiple factors such as demand front - loading from stable growth, policy shift to structural adjustment, downward Kitchin cycle, and weather. Although the current situation doesn't impact the full - year macro - expectation due to the 5.3% H1 real GDP growth, a lack of policy support in stable growth, especially in the real estate sector, may lead to a pessimistic economic outlook [8]. - PTA demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the impact of the peak season on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts still suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly. Polyester's operating rate has been revised up, and the supply side has remained stable recently [9][10]. - PVC is in a weak trend. The newly announced anti - dumping duties in India will affect China's PVC export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand. It is advisable to take a bearish stance and consider the opportunity of going long on caustic soda and short on PVC [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals - Gold and Silver: PPI exceeding expectations has dampened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, causing silver to decline slightly. Gold's trend strength is - 1, and silver's is also - 1 [14][18][20]. - Copper: Lacking driving forces, the price fluctuation range has narrowed. The trend strength is 0 [14][22][24]. - Zinc: Inventory accumulation has become more obvious. The trend strength is - 1 [14][25][27]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory has supported the price. The trend strength is 0 [14][28][29]. - Tin: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The trend strength is - 1 [14][31][34]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy: Aluminum continues to converge, alumina shows a small sideways increase, and cast aluminum alloy is gradually showing off - season pressure. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [14][35][37]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel's fundamentals oscillate within a narrow range, and one should be vigilant against news - related risks. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [14][38][42]. - Carbonate Lithium: Supply - side disturbances occur repeatedly, and it shows a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strength is 1 [14][43][45]. Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has strong market sentiment, with amplified price fluctuations. Polysilicon has more news - related disturbances this week. The trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both 1 [14][46][49]. - Iron Ore: The macro - risk appetite has not significantly declined, providing support. The trend strength is 1 [14][51][52]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both are in a wide - range oscillation. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [14][54][58]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese: The sector sentiment is weak, and they oscillate weakly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silico - manganese are both 0 [14][59][62]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They are in a relatively strong oscillation. The trend strengths of coke and coking coal are both 0 [14][64][66]. Others - PTA: Demand has improved month - on - month, shifting to a sideways market. Pay attention to the peak - season impact on the industrial chain. Non - mainstream warehouse receipts suppress near - month contracts, and the 9 - 1 spread is unlikely to strengthen significantly [9][10]. - PVC: It is in a weak trend. The Indian anti - dumping duties affect export competitiveness, and the domestic market has high production, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [11]. - Log: It oscillates repeatedly [67].
国泰君安期货:所长早读-20250818
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-18 03:24