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中辉能化观点-20250818
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-18 03:38
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Partially take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Propylene: Bearish consolidation [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions ease and supply surplus pressure rises, leading to a downward trend in oil prices, but the decline space is narrowing [1][4] - LPG: High basis and improved downstream demand lead to a short - term rebound, and long positions can be partially taken profit [1][9] - L: With the approaching of the shed film peak season, the demand side strengthens, and it is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [1][16] - PP: Although the cost is weak in the short term, with the approaching of the demand peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [1][23] - PVC: After India announced the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and it is recommended to hold short positions [1][30] - PX: The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and with the weakening of oil prices, it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [1][35] - PTA: Although the supply pressure is expected to increase later, considering the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [1][39] - Ethylene glycol: Supply increases and demand is expected to recover, but the inventory is low, so it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [2][43] - Methanol: Supply pressure increases and demand is weak, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][47] - Urea: Supply is sufficient and domestic demand is weak, but export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [2][51] - Asphalt: The cost is under pressure and supply increases while demand decreases, so it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Propylene: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season, so it is recommended to buy on dips [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Market Review: Last Friday, international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 3.10% (due to contract roll - over), Brent decreased 1.48%, and SC rose 0.62% [3] - Basic Logic: Geopolitical conflicts tend to ease, the support of the peak season for oil prices declines, and OPEC+ production increase exerts pressure on oil prices. In the medium - long term, oil prices may be pressed to around $60 [4] - Fundamentals: The IEA expects global crude oil supply to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.9 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC's August output was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 263,000 barrels per day. The IEA expects global crude oil demand to grow by 685,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 699,000 barrels per day in 2026. As of the week ending August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3 million barrels [5] - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. Buy put options. Pay attention to the range of SC [475 - 495] [6] 3.2 LPG - Market Review: On August 15, the PG main contract closed at 3,875 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% [7][8] - Basic Logic: The cost of oil is weak, but the basis is high, and the supply and demand situation improves with both supply and inventory decreasing, leading to a short - term rebound [9] - Strategy Recommendation: In the medium - long term, the price mainly follows the oil price. Partially take profit on long positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [3830 - 3930] [10] 3.3 L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7,251 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Ningmei in North China was 7,280 yuan/ton [13][14] - Basic Logic: Spot prices decline slightly, the basis weakens. With more device maintenance recently, the supply pressure eases. The shed film peak season is approaching, and the demand side strengthens. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold long LP arbitrage [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips [17] 3.4 PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 7,084 yuan/ton, and the spot price of East China drawn wire was 7,051 yuan/ton [20][21] - Basic Logic: Oil prices decline, spot prices continue to decline slightly, and the basis weakens. Although the upstream maintains high - level maintenance, the demand peak season is approaching. Pay attention to the restocking rhythm in the peak season and buy on dips [23] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips [24] 3.5 PVC - Market Review: The V2509 contract closed at 4,954 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 399 [27][28] - Basic Logic: After the main contract roll - over and India's announcement of the anti - dumping tax, China's export advantage weakens, and the inventory accumulates. It is recommended to hold short positions [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait for a rebound and then short [31] 3.6 PX - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6,688 yuan/ton [33][34] - Basic Logic: The supply side slightly increases production, the demand side weakens but is expected to improve. The expected supply - demand tight balance eases, and it is recommended to take profit on short positions and look for short - selling opportunities [35] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6620 - 6720] [36] 3.7 PTA - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4,716 yuan/ton [37][38] - Basic Logic: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure is expected to increase later. However, with the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season expectation, it is recommended to take profit on short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on dips [39] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on short positions step by step, buy put options, and look for long - buying opportunities on dips for TA. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4680 - 4750] [40] 3.8 Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,369 yuan/ton [41][42] - Basic Logic: The supply increases, and the demand is expected to recover. Although the inventory is low, it is recommended to hold short positions carefully and look for short - selling opportunities [43] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions carefully, look for short - selling opportunities, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of EG [4380 - 4425] [44] 3.9 Methanol - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,355 yuan/ton, and the 01 main contract closed at 2,412 yuan/ton [46] - Basic Logic: The supply pressure increases as the previous maintenance devices resume production, and the demand is weak. The social inventory accumulates, but the cost has support. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions step by step and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [47] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on 09 short positions step by step, look for long - buying opportunities on 01, and take profit on MA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage in batches. Pay attention to the range of MA [2390 - 2420] [48] 3.10 Urea - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price of small - granular urea in Shandong was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton [49][50] - Basic Logic: The supply is sufficient, and the domestic demand is weak, but the export is relatively good. It is recommended to take profit on 09 short positions and look for long - buying opportunities on 01 [51] - Strategy Recommendation: Take profit on 09 short positions, and considering the potential of the autumn fertilizer peak season and export speculation, look for long - buying opportunities on 01. Pay attention to the range of UR [1725 - 1750] [53] 3.11 Asphalt - Basic Logic: The cost is under pressure, supply increases while demand decreases, and it is recommended to short with a light position [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Short with a light position [2] 3.12 Propylene - Basic Logic: The cost support weakens, but the downstream is turning to the peak season. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy on dips [2]