方正中期期货有色金属周度策略-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate. China's anti - involution in multiple industries has led to some varieties being boosted, while profit - taking in leading anti - involution sectors has caused adjustments in industrial products. The suspension of a 24% tariff for 90 days is beneficial to the industry. With China's positive policies, the overall situation of non - ferrous metals remains strong despite fluctuations [11][12]. - The market generally believes that the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in September is high. Although inflation expectations have rebounded, the Fed's decision - making independence is being questioned [12]. - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and policy impacts. Each metal has different trends and investment strategies [13][14][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro - level: The non - ferrous metals sector continues to oscillate. China's anti - involution in industries like black metals, photovoltaics, and building materials has affected the sector. The suspension of a 24% tariff for 90 days is positive for the industry. China has introduced a series of positive policies, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September [11][12]. - Single - product analysis: - Copper: Supply and demand are both strong, with demand rising faster. Social inventory is decreasing, and production remains high. The price center is expected to rise, and short - term support is at 78000 - 79000 yuan/ton, with resistance at 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton [3]. - Zinc: Supply increases while demand is weak. It shows a phased shock, with resistance at 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton and support at 21800 - 22000 yuan/ton. Mid - term, it can be shorted on rallies [7]. - Aluminum and its industry chain: Cost decreases, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies. Alumina prices are slightly down, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy is under pressure [5]. - Tin: It shows a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to trade in the range of 250000 - 290000 yuan/ton, with high - selling and low - buying strategies [5]. - Lead: It is in a consolidation phase. It can be bought on dips in the short - term, with support at 16500 - 16600 yuan/ton and resistance at 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton [7]. - Nickel and stainless steel: Nickel supply is in surplus, and stainless steel supply increases while demand is weak. Nickel can be shorted on rallies in the mid - term, and stainless steel can be considered long if the support level holds [7]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and weekly price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, such as copper closing at 79060 yuan/ton with a 0.73% increase, and zinc closing at 22505 yuan/ton with a 0.04% decrease [16]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, for example, the Yangtze River non - ferrous copper spot price is 79260 yuan/ton with a 0.45% decrease, and the Yangtze River non - ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22440 yuan/ton with a 0.36% decrease [21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Tracking of Key Data in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Multiple charts are used to show the changes in inventory, processing fees, prices, and other data of various non - ferrous metals, such as the exchange copper inventory change and SMM social copper inventory change [23]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Recommended arbitrage strategies include the positive spread between copper 2509 - 2510 contracts and the reverse spread between alumina 2502 - 2509 contracts [16]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Different option strategies are recommended for each metal, such as selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options for copper, and buying bull spreads for zinc [3][7]