Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 - Report Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for the industry were provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Precious Metals: PPI exceeding expectations dampened interest - rate cut expectations, with gold and silver showing downward trends. Gold's trend strength was - 1, and silver's was also - 1 [2][7]. - Base Metals: - Copper: Lacked driving forces, with price fluctuations narrowing, and a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - Zinc: Inventory accumulation became apparent, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][12]. - Lead: A decrease in LME inventory supported prices, and the trend strength was 0 [2][15]. - Tin: Traded in a range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][18]. - Aluminum: Continued to converge. Alumina saw a small sideways increase, while cast aluminum alloy faced increasing pressure in the off - season. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy were all 0 [2][23]. - Nickel: Traded in a narrow range based on fundamentals, and investors were warned of news - related risks. Stainless steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel were both 0 [2][26]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - Price Movement: Domestic and international gold prices declined. For example, the closing price of Comex Gold 2510 was $3381.70, down 0.02% [5]. - Market News: PPI exceeding expectations dampened interest - rate cut expectations. Overseas demand for US Treasuries remained resilient, and foreign investors' holdings in June reached a new high [7]. Silver - Price Movement: Prices declined slightly. For instance, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9204, down 0.88% [5]. - Market News: Similar to gold, influenced by macro - factors, with a trend strength of - 1 [7]. Base Metals Copper - Price Movement: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,060 yuan, up 0.14%. The London Copper 3M electronic disk closed at $9,760, down 0.17% [9]. - Market News: China's July economic data showed declines in various indicators. The US July retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month. Chile's copper exports to China recovered in July after a decline in June [9]. Zinc - Price Movement: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,505 yuan, up 0.11%. The London Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at $2,796.5, down 1.62% [12]. - Market News: Inventory accumulation became more obvious, and the LME cash - 3M spread decreased [12]. Lead - Price Movement: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,850 yuan, up 0.48%. The London Lead 3M electronic disk closed at $1,981, down 0.45% [15]. - Market News: A decrease in LME lead inventory supported prices [15]. Tin - Price Movement: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 266,820 yuan, down 0.22%. The London Tin 3M electronic disk closed at $33,610, up 0.52% [19]. - Market News: Traded in a range, with changes in inventory and price spreads [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Movement: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,770 yuan. Alumina prices showed a small sideways increase, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20,165 yuan [23]. - Market News: Aluminum continued to converge, alumina was stable with a small increase, and cast aluminum alloy faced off - season pressure [23]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Movement: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,600 yuan, and the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,010 yuan [26]. - Market News: Nickel traded in a narrow range based on fundamentals, and stainless steel prices oscillated due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. There were also various industry news such as production suspensions in Indonesian nickel - iron smelting parks [26].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:贵金属及基本金属-20250818
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-18 05:00