铁矿石：宏观预期偏向于积极，短期矿价区间运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term iron ore supply - demand is expected to be balanced and tight, with slow supply growth and strong domestic demand. The short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2]. - The price will fluctuate in a strong range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to the overseas market price of about 101 - 105 US dollars/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Last week, the Sino - US tariff policy was implemented, and the domestic short - term macro entered a window period. The market focused more on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Affected by the weakening terminal demand and the exchange's suppression of coking coal speculation, the iron ore price declined. But high blast - furnace profits and short - process losses at off - peak electricity prices are expected to keep domestic demand at a relatively high level in the short term, and the supply - side recovery pressure is not large, with a phased balance in iron ore supply and demand and stable port inventories [1]. Supply - Overseas ore shipments will gradually enter the seasonal recovery cycle, but the overall month - on - month growth rate is low. After the maintenance of Australian BHP and FMG mines ended, shipments did not recover quickly. Brazilian shipments remained at a moderately high level this period. Due to the decline in shipments in July, the short - term arrivals in August are expected to be low, and the actual supply - side pressure is not prominent [1]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (month - on - month +0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, blast - furnace profits are considerable, and short - process steelmaking is in full - scale loss. Short - term iron ore demand remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports prices. Later, attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has been rising month - on - month and is higher than the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrivals, port inventories have slightly accumulated this period. In the future, with the decline in arrivals and high pig iron production, short - term inventories are expected to remain stable or decline slightly [2].