长江期货饲料养殖产业周报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of live pigs persists, and the rebound of futures prices is under pressure. Although there may be a phased rebound in prices in the short - term, the supply will increase significantly after September, and prices will continue to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term [4][52]. - The abundant supply of eggs suppresses the market, and the rebound of the futures price is under pressure. In the short - term, sufficient supply will limit the increase in egg prices, and in the long - term, the high - supply situation may be difficult to reverse [5][83]. - The listing of new corn supplements the supply, and the futures price is running weakly. In the short - term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and in the long - term, supply pressure during the listing period and the decline in cost support may lead to a downward shift in the price fluctuation center [6][110]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Live Pigs 3.1.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - As of August 15, the national spot price was 13.7 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.73 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from last week; the live pig 2511 contract closed at 13,945 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan/ton from last week; the basis of the 11 - contract was - 215 yuan/ton, up 335 yuan/ton from last week [4][12]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The average weekly fat - to - standard price difference was 0.51 yuan, up 0.02 yuan from last week; the national average weekly live pig slaughter weight was 127.2 kg, up 0.02 kg from last week; the secondary fattening sales volume from August 1 - 10, 2025, accounted for 0.82%, down 0.12% from the previous period; as of August 15, the live pig warehouse receipts were 430 lots, up 50 lots from last week [4]. - Demand - related data: The average daily weekly slaughter start - up rate was up 0.98% to 28.09%; the average daily weekly slaughter volume was 116,232 heads, up 4,077 heads from last week; the fresh meat sales rate was down 0.64% to 87.02%; the slaughter processing profit was - 19.5 yuan/head, up 0.5 yuan/head from last week; the frozen product storage rate was 17.2%, up 0.09% from last week [4]. - Cost - related data: The national average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 383.33 yuan/head, down 30.48 yuan/head from last week; the self - breeding and self - raising profit was 11.83 yuan/head, down 19.59 yuan/head from last week; the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 204.05 yuan/head, down 17.14 yuan/head from last week; the price of 50 - kg binary breeding sows was 1,611 yuan/head, down 2 yuan/head from last week; the cost of self - breeding and self - raising 5 - month - old fattening pigs for sows of 5,000 - 10,000 heads was 12.82 yuan/kg, the same as last week; as of the week of August 8, the national pig - to - grain ratio was 6.02:1 [4]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024. Although the production capacity began to decline in December 2024, the decline was limited. The production capacity increased again from May to June 2025, and the overall sow production capacity was abundant. Combined with the improvement of production performance, the live pig slaughter pressure will remain high until April next year [4][17]. - The production performance has improved. In July, the ratio of binary to ternary breeding sows was 94%:6%, the same as last month; the breeding farrowing rate was 79.67%, up 0.74% from last month; the average number of healthy piglets per litter was 11.29, up 0.01 from last month. The sow production performance was at the highest level in the past four years [17]. 3.1.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, there may be a phased price rebound, but the supply will increase significantly after September, and the rebound height is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will increase until April next year, and prices will continue to be under pressure [4]. 3.1.5 Strategy Recommendations - The futures price is still at a premium compared to the low - price area in the southwest. Contracts 11 and 01 face large supply pressure and their rebounds are under pressure. Contract 03 is under pressure as it corresponds to next year's off - season, while contract 05 is relatively strong due to the expectation of policy - driven production capacity reduction. For contracts 11 and 01, gradually stop losses on previous short positions at low levels, wait for the spot price to drive a rebound, and then add short positions at the pressure levels. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4]. 3.2 Eggs 3.2.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - As of August 15, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.1 yuan/jin, up 0.19 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from last Friday; the egg 2510 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 75 yuan/500 kg from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was - 562 yuan/500 kg, up 5 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][62]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The national weekly utilization rate of breeding eggs for laying hens was 68.00%, the same as last week; the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas was 3.60 yuan/chick, down 0.25 yuan/chick from last week; the average price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 5.48 yuan/jin, down 0.20 yuan/jin from last week; the culled hen slaughter volume was 14.42 million, up 710,000 from last week; the culled hen age was 506 days, the same as last week [63]. - Demand - related data: The egg sales volume in the sample sales areas was 7,605 tons, up 76 tons from last week; the average daily number of trucks arriving at the Beijing market was 12, down 0.71 from last week; the average daily number of trucks arriving at the Guangdong market was 83, up 8 from last week [63]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in August corresponds to the increased chick replenishment in April 2025. After the Beginning of Autumn, the egg - laying rate will gradually recover. Although some farms have culled old hens, the supply is still abundant due to the supplement of cold - stored eggs [5]. - In the long - term, the high chick - replenishment volume from May to July 2025 means a large number of newly - opened laying hens from September to November 2025. The high - supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but the chick - replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the supply growth may slow down [5]. 3.2.4 Weekly Summary - In the short - term, sufficient supply will limit the increase in egg prices. If the Mid - Autumn Festival market performance is not as expected, the culling may increase, alleviating the long - term supply pressure. Continuously monitor the culling situation [5]. 3.2.5 Strategy Recommendations - The spot price may have a small - scale rebound. The culling of hens is the key variable. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Currently, the main contract is 10, with a large premium. Wait for a rebound to go short. If the culling process accelerates, there are opportunities to go long on contracts 12 and 01 [5]. 3.3 Corn 3.3.1 Week - to - Week Market Review - As of August 15, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, the same as last Friday; the corn 2511 contract closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis of the main contract was 110 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][91]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply - related data: The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports was 11.6 (weekly), down 13.1 from last week; the average number of remaining vehicles at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises in the morning was 234, down 46 from last week [93]. - Demand - related data: The deep - processing enterprise start - up rate was 55.9%, up 2.07% from last week; the deep - processing enterprise corn consumption was 101.95 tons, down 1.6 tons from last week; the northern port shipping volume was 24.7 tons, up 0.7 tons from last week [93]. - Inventory - related data: The northern port corn inventory was 247 tons, down 22 tons from last week; the southern port corn inventory was 75.1 tons, down 14.5 tons from last week; the sample feed enterprise corn inventory days were 29.61 days, down 0.83 days from last week [93]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - In the next ten days, there will be more rainfall in many areas, which is beneficial for soil moisture but may also cause waterlogging and other disasters. High - temperature weather in some areas may affect crop growth [97]. 3.3.4 Weekly Summary - Currently, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, the climate is suitable, and the cost support has shifted downwards. The price fluctuation center may shift downwards, but the weather in the production areas needs to be continuously monitored [6]. 3.3.5 Strategy Recommendations - The main contract has shifted to 11, which is linked to the new crop. With suitable weather and cost reduction, the futures price is weak due to the expected selling pressure during the listing period. Those without positions can wait for a rebound to go short or hold the 11 - 1 reverse spread [6].