长江期货贵金属周报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The price of precious metals has corrected due to factors such as the unexpected US PPI data in July, the meeting between the US and Russia leading to a cooling of risk aversion, the significant shortfall of the US non - farm payrolls data in July, and the sharp decline in the market's expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut in September. However, due to concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, the precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the signal of a September interest rate cut released by Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium [5][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - As of last Friday, the price of US gold closed at $3382 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3450, and the lower support level is $3320. The price of US silver closed at $38 per ounce, down 1.3% for the week. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.5 [5]. 3.2 Weekly View - The price of precious metals has corrected due to multiple factors, including the unexpected US PPI data, the meeting between the US and Russia, and the significant shortfall of the US non - farm payrolls data. The market's expectation of an aggressive interest rate cut in September has cooled significantly. The results of the US trade negotiations with multiple countries have been finalized, and the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe has increased. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell's remarks at the interest rate meeting were hawkish. The US tariff policy has basically been finalized, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, so the precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the signal of a September interest rate cut released by Powell at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators The report presents data and trends of various overseas macroeconomic indicators such as real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), exchange rates (euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar), the US dollar index, yield spreads (10Y - 2Y), gold - silver ratio, the Fed's balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices, but no specific conclusions are drawn [15][18][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - US CPI annual rate unadjusted in July was 2.7%, expected 2.8%, and the previous value was 2.7%. - US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, expected 2.5%, and the previous value was 2.3%. - US retail sales monthly rate in July was 0.5%, expected 0.5%, and the previous value was 0.6%. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in August was 58.6, expected 62, and the previous value was 61.7 [28]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The meeting between the US and Russia on Friday lasted about two and a half hours, with limited exchanges on specific issues, and no agreement text or specific arrangements were announced. Zelensky will visit Washington on Monday to meet with Trump, and Trump hopes to hold a summit between the US, Russia, and Ukraine before August 22 if the talks go well. - The US PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month in July, significantly higher than the zero growth in June and the market expectation of 0.2%, the largest increase since June 2022. The core PPI in July rose 3.7% year - on - year, expected 2.9%, and the previous value was 2.6%; it rose 0.9% month - on - month, expected 0.2%, and the previous value was flat [30]. 3.6 Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory increased by 1,597 kg to 1,201,725.17 kg this week, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg. - Silver: COMEX inventory increased by 32,933.21 kg to 15,786,620.42 kg this week, and SHFE inventory decreased by 16,832 kg to 1,141,555 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Position - This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 220,543 contracts, a decrease of 9,674 contracts from last week. - This week, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 41,696 contracts, a decrease of 6,804 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Thursday, August 21, at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ended August 16 will be released; at 21:45, the preliminary value of the US SPGI Manufacturing PMI for August will be released. - On Friday, August 22, at 22:00, Fed Chairman Powell will give a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium [41]. Strategy Suggestion Buy on dips after the price correction. Refer to the operating range of 760 - 810 for the Shanghai Gold 10 contract and 8800 - 9500 for the Shanghai Silver 10 contract [13].