长江期货棉纺产业周报：震荡偏强-20250818

Report Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is oscillating and strengthening [3] Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Due to the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts and the positive USDA report, the futures market oscillated and rebounded, and the 09 contract successfully reduced its positions. Next week, the market will mainly show an oscillating or rebounding trend. Attention should be paid to the results of the meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th and its impact on the international situation. There are no other major domestic or international macro - events. The CF2509 contract should be watched in the range of [13560 - 13930], and the CF2601 contract in the range of [13920 - 14300] [5] - Medium - term: The long and short positions of the 09 futures contract were closed quickly and are almost stable. The probability of a US rate cut in September has risen significantly to over 90%. With the upcoming new cotton listing, the psychological expectation of ginneries for machine - picked cotton purchase is 6 - 6.3 yuan/ton. The pre - sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly compared with last year, about 1.5 million tons, which supports the price of newly - listed seed cotton, and the initial price is slightly higher. Additionally, with the approaching "Golden September and Silver October", there is a possibility of support or rebound in futures prices [5] - Long - term: Currently, the purchase price of hand - picked cotton in Kashgar is 7 - 7.3 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale price of cottonseed is 2.26 - 2.4 yuan/kg. The psychological expectation of ginneries for machine - picked cotton purchase is 6 - 6.3 yuan/ton, and they are cautious about prices higher than this. Comparing with the current price of the 2601 contract at 14100 - 14200 yuan/ton, farmers can make a profit. This year, the yield per unit has increased. For farmers who lease land, they can break even by selling at 6.66 yuan/ton (including the target subsidy, and it is expected that this year's subsidy will decrease to 0.6 - 0.7 yuan/kg). So, a seed cotton delivery price of 6 yuan/kg can ensure break - even. Also, the pre - sale volume of new cotton has increased significantly compared with last year, about 1.5 million tons, which supports the price of newly - listed seed cotton, and the initial price is slightly higher. During this period, the market is expected to oscillate or may have a rebound opportunity, with support at 13600 - 13700 and resistance at 14300 - 14600. After October, the price is expected to decline, and next year it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [5] Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton - Short - term: The futures market will oscillate or rebound next week. Pay attention to the meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15th. The CF2509 contract should be watched in the [13560 - 13930] range, and the CF2601 contract in the [13920 - 14300] range [5] - Medium - term: The 09 contract is almost stable. The probability of a US rate cut in September is over 90%. New cotton pre - sale volume has increased, and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October" may support futures prices [5] - Long - term: Current purchase prices of different types of cotton are given. New cotton pre - sale volume has increased. The market may oscillate or rebound, with support and resistance levels provided. After October, the price may decline, and next year it may oscillate and strengthen [5] 02 - Weekly Viewpoint - Cotton Yarn - This week, Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and rebounded. The cotton yarn market's trading improved with the gradual recovery of downstream demand. Spinning mills' quotes were mainly stable, with some local preferential sales. Some traders' low - price sales decreased slightly. Air - jet spun and regular varieties were mainly for rigid demand. In terms of profit, as cotton prices stabilized, profit performance gradually became stable. Currently, inland spinning mills' C32S cash - flow loss is about 500 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang spinning mills still have a small profit. Overall, enterprises still face challenges of compressed processing profit and inventory pressure. The short - term market may continue to oscillate, following the cotton market but under greater pressure [7] 03 - Market Review - Cotton market: This week, the cotton market oscillated and strengthened, and the spot market remained strong. The main futures contract oscillated and adjusted. Although the overall commodity market was optimistic, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was still poor, and cotton prices were relatively stable [11] - Cotton yarn market: This week, the cotton yarn spot market remained stable, and the futures market oscillated and strengthened. The downstream still faced insufficient demand and production reduction. Enterprises' profit pressure was relatively large [11] 04 - International Macro - Multiple important economic data of the US and the Eurozone from August 1st to 20th, 2025 are presented, including unemployment rate, non - farm payrolls, trade balance, CPI, PPI, GDP, etc. [13] 05 - Domestic Macro - Multiple important economic data of China from August 7th to 20th, 2025 are presented, including foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, fixed - asset investment, retail sales, and unemployment rate [15] 06 - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's August global cotton supply - demand forecast report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and import - export trade volume were all adjusted down month - on - month, and the ending inventory decreased month - on - month. In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production was expected to be adjusted down, consumption to be increased, and exports to be decreased. With the reduction of the beginning inventory, the ending inventory in the 2024/25 season decreased again [16] 07 - Domestic Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - 2024/25 season: The beginning inventory was 6.81 million tons, the national production was 6.85 million tons, and the annual import volume was adjusted down to 1.03 million tons. The monthly cotton consumption decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the annual cotton consumption was expected to be increased by 50,000 tons to 8.05 million tons. The total demand increased by 50,000 tons to 8.45 million tons, and the ending inventory was adjusted down by 120,000 tons to 6.24 million tons [18][22] - 2025/26 season: The beginning inventory was adjusted down by 120,000 tons to 6.24 million tons. Xinjiang's production increased by 120,000 tons to 6.59 million tons, and inland production decreased by 3,000 tons to about 310,000 tons. The national total production increased by about 120,000 tons to 6.9 million tons. The annual import volume was expected to be adjusted down by 100,000 tons to 1.4 million tons. The annual cotton consumption was expected to remain at 7.9 million tons, other consumption and exports remained at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively, and the total demand remained stable at 8.3 million tons. The ending inventory was adjusted down by 100,000 tons to 6.24 million tons [19][22] 08 - US Cotton Exports - As of August 7, 2025, the US had cumulatively net - signed 730,000 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 27.95% of the annual expected export volume, and had cumulatively shipped 35,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 4.80%. Among them, upland cotton signing volume was 709,000 tons, shipping 32,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 4.56%; Pima cotton signing volume was 21,000 tons, shipping 3,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 12.89%. China had cumulatively signed 3,000 tons of US cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 0.35% of the US's signed volume, and had cumulatively shipped 181 tons, accounting for 0.52% of the US's total shipment volume and 7.14% of China's signed volume [26] 09 - Industrial and Commercial Inventory - At the end of July, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from last month, a decline of 22.62%, and 588,400 tons lower than the same period last year, a decline of 21.18%. As of the end of July, the textile enterprises' in - stock industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of last month. The textile enterprises' disposable cotton inventory was 1.2062 million tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons from the end of last month. The total industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 497,000 tons [28] 10 - Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports in June - In June 2025, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous month, a decline of 25.0%, and a decrease of 130,000 tons from the same period last year, a decline of 82.1%. From January to June 2025, China had cumulatively imported 460,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. From September 2024 to August 2025, China had cumulatively imported 950,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 75.4%. In June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.1%, and a month - on - month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 10%. From January to June 2025, China had cumulatively imported 670,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 13.6%. From September 2024 to June 2025, China had cumulatively imported about 1.17 million tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year decrease of 18.18% [32] 11 - Cotton Yarn Production and Sales in July - In July, with the further reduction of spinning mills' operation rate, production continued to decline. The production of pure cotton yarn (excluding recycled yarn) in July was 434,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. From January to July, the cumulative production of pure cotton yarn was 3.004 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. July is still the traditional off - season for spinning mills. The downstream market showed some differentiation. From the perspective of operation rate and orders, the knitting market's orders increased slightly, and the operation rate rebounded slightly but remained at a low level. The operation rate of the weaving market mostly decreased. It is initially estimated that the consumption of pure cotton yarn (excluding recycled yarn) in July 2025 was 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. From January to July, the cumulative consumption was 3.592 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [36] 12 - US Cotton Growth - As of August 10, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 65%, 7 percentage points slower than last year and 6 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 8%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The good - to - excellent rate was 53%, 7 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average. The growth progress of US cotton was slower than last year and the five - year average, and the good - to - excellent rate decreased slightly month - on - month but was still much higher than the historical average [39] 13 - US Cotton Weather - As of August 12, the drought degree and coverage index of the main US cotton - growing areas (93.0%) was 50, an increase of 8 month - on - month and a decrease of 18 year - on - year. The drought degree and coverage index of Texas was 66, an increase of 2 month - on - month and a decrease of 26 year - on - year. The drought level in the main US cotton - growing areas rebounded, and that in Texas was basically stable month - on - month. In the past two weeks, the main growing areas and Texas had high temperatures and little rain, so the drought seasonally rebounded. Currently, the impact is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether the weather will continue to deteriorate [43] 14 - Xinjiang Cotton Growth - As of August 11, 2025, Xinjiang's cotton growth had entered the late boll - setting stage. Affected by continuous high - temperature weather in some cotton areas, the boll - setting rate of upper fruit branches was low, and the number of top bolls decreased. The average number of bolls was 8.4, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous week. Among them, the average number of bolls in southern Xinjiang was 8.3, a decrease of 0.2; in northern Xinjiang, it was 8.4, a decrease of 0.4; in eastern Xinjiang, it was 8.4, the same as last week. This year, the number of pre - summer bolls increased by about 1 - 2 compared with last year. If proper management is carried out in the later stage to increase the number of autumn bolls and prevent cotton field premature aging, most cotton farmers are optimistic about this year's cotton yield increase, with an expected increase of 15 - 30 kg. Currently, cotton in some areas of southern and eastern Xinjiang has begun to open bolls, about 5 - 10 days earlier than last year. Cotton field management is coming to an end, and the supply of water and fertilizer is gradually decreasing. According to the survey, some cotton fields plan to stop irrigation around August 20 and start spraying defoliants around September 5. The new cotton picking time will be about 10 days earlier than in previous years [45] 15 - Textile Industry Inventory - In June, the textile industry's inventory was 401.53 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 1.12%. The textile industry's finished - product inventory was 215.3 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1.18% and a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. The textile and clothing inventory was 187.98 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36%. The textile and clothing finished - product inventory was 99.31 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year increase of 1.68% [46] 16 - Domestic Demand - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.29%. From January to July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In July, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, knitted, and textile products were 96.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 24.63%. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 837.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [51] 17 - External Demand - According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 26.766 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 2