长江证券碳酸锂周报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week's lithium carbonate production decreased by 265 tons to 20,093 tons, while July's production increased by 5.8% to 85,690 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine will be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for re - review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In June 2025, China's lithium ore imports were 576,000 tons, a 4.8% month - on - month decrease, and lithium carbonate imports were 18,000 tons, a 16% month - on - month decrease. The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some lithium carbonate manufacturers using purchased lithium ore [5]. - Demand side: The overall production schedule in August increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedules increasing by 7%. In July, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 133.8 GWh, a 3.6% month - on - month and 44.3% year - on - year increase. The new energy vehicle purchase tax extension policy is expected to support sales growth [6]. - Inventory: This week, lithium carbonate inventory decreased. Factory inventory decreased by 2,470 tons, market inventory decreased by 2,759 tons, and futures inventory increased by 4,656 tons [6]. - Strategy: Supply may be supplemented by South American imports. With good terminal demand for energy storage and increased production schedules in August, and considering the impact of mining rights review on supply and the increase in cost, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be supported in the short term. However, downstream procurement is cautious, so it is recommended to trade carefully and pay attention to upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material manufacturers' production schedules [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views - Supply: Production decreased last week but increased in July. Mines faced shutdowns and mining rights reviews. Import volumes of lithium ore and lithium carbonate decreased in June. The cost of imported ore increased, causing cost pressure on some manufacturers [5]. - Demand: August production schedules increased, and July battery production, exports, and sales showed different trends. Policies are expected to support new energy vehicle sales [6]. - Inventory: There was a net decrease in non - futures inventory and an increase in futures inventory this week [6]. - Strategy: Supply may be supplemented, prices are expected to be supported, but downstream is cautious, so careful trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - Price and production data: There are long - term data on the spot price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, and average production cost, showing trends over multiple years [8][11][20]. - Inventory data: There are data on weekly and monthly lithium carbonate inventory, including factory inventory, showing changes over time [13][17]. - Battery production data: Data on monthly production of power batteries, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials are presented, along with the difference between production and loading volume [20][27][29]. - Import data: Data on lithium spodumene and lithium carbonate imports over the years are provided, as well as the price of related products [33][36].