杰克逊霍尔会议前瞻：模糊论调至上

Group 1: Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment in the U.S. is more severe than the same period last year, necessitating interest rate cuts to counteract a significant slowdown in economic growth expected after 2025[2] - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points over the past year, but further cuts may be limited due to the current economic conditions[4] - The downward trend in hard data in the U.S. is likely to continue, and Powell's stance at the Jackson Hole meeting will be crucial[4] Group 2: Interest Rate Outlook - There is skepticism about Powell providing clear guidance on the interest rate cut path at the Jackson Hole meeting, with a 25 basis point cut in September facing resistance[2] - The decision for a September rate cut will depend heavily on the August non-farm payroll data, particularly the unemployment rate and revisions to previous employment figures[2] - If the August non-farm report shows a stable unemployment rate and upward revisions, Powell may have sufficient reasons to reject a September rate cut[21] Group 3: Market Reactions and Risks - Market expectations for a rate cut may be overly optimistic, especially if data does not consistently point towards a clear monetary policy direction[27] - Risks include increased uncertainty from Trump's policies, which could lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[28] - Global economic impacts from tariffs may lead to unexpected levels of synchronized easing, potentially alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[28]