海外策略周报：博弈降息预期-20250818

Core Insights - The report indicates that recent economic data has led to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by easing geopolitical risks and mixed performance across major asset classes. The US CPI showed moderate performance, which initially raised rate cut expectations, but a subsequent rebound in PPI and stable retail data caused these expectations to retract. The MSCI global index rose by 1.22%, with most national markets experiencing gains, while US stock indices showed varied performance with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq increasing by 1.7%, 0.9%, and 0.8% respectively [2][17][27]. Economic Data Summary - The US July CPI remained stable at 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous value but falling short of the expected 2.8%. Core CPI increased to 3.1%, above the prior 2.9% and the forecast of 3.0%. The report highlights that energy prices significantly declined, impacting overall CPI, while core goods showed slower growth, indicating a lag in tariff transmission [3][12]. - The July PPI saw a substantial increase from 2.3% to 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month change also rose from 0% to 0.9%, driven primarily by a 2.0% increase in trade services, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures [3][12]. - Retail sales in July experienced a slight month-on-month decline of 0.5%, although the previous value was revised upward from 0.6% to 0.9%. This indicates a resilient consumer sector, despite some categories like grocery and restaurant sales showing significant declines [12][11]. Policy Developments - The report notes that the US and China have agreed to extend the suspension of tariffs for an additional 90 days until November 10. This decision follows a joint statement from the US and China regarding trade discussions [13]. - Progress was reported in the US-Russia summit, although no formal agreements were reached regarding the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The meeting was characterized by both sides acknowledging advancements in discussions [13]. - The report also mentions that President Trump has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum products, with new tariffs set to take effect on August 18, impacting 407 product codes [13]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the US stock market has reached new highs before experiencing a slight pullback. The initial rise was attributed to favorable CPI data, which increased rate cut expectations, but subsequent PPI and retail sales data tempered these expectations [27][28]. - The report indicates that the healthcare and consumer discretionary sectors have shown strong performance, particularly in Chinese pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks [28]. Asset Class Performance - The MSCI global stock index increased by 1.22%, with notable gains in Japan, Vietnam, and China. The report also details the performance of various asset classes, noting a decline in the dollar index by 0.43% to 97.8, and a drop in COMEX gold and ICE Brent oil prices by 2.21% and 0.29% respectively [17][22].