财达期货｜铜周报-20250818

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term copper price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, waiting for macro - news to drive it. The recent Fed rate - cut expectations are volatile, with uncertainties remaining at the macro - level. Domestically, the macro sentiment is neutral. On the supply - demand side, factors such as the increase in processing fees, the rise in global visible inventories, and weak demand during the off - season have a negative impact on copper prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Supply - demand situation - The SMM copper concentrate TC index is reported at - 37.68 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase. The SMM weekly enameled wire industry machine - tool operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 78.4% month - on - month, and new orders decreased by 3.18 percentage points. The copper cable enterprise operating rate is 69.3%, continuing to decline from last week, and is expected to slightly drop to 67.6% this week. Although enterprises report that orders have improved compared to the previous period, overall demand has not substantially improved. In August, passenger car sales maintained steady growth, but real - estate transaction areas were significantly weak. The inventories of the three major exchanges increased by 0.7 tons month - on - month [4] 2. Macro - economic situation - The US PPI monthly rate in July reached 0.9%, the largest increase since 2022, indicating a general rise in inflation in the coming months. After the data was released, Fed officials refuted the expectation of a significant rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and suppressing copper prices. The small - scale meeting between the US and Russian leaders ended without a specific agreement, and the results of the US - Ukraine meeting on Monday should be monitored [4] 3. Market review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper first rose and then fell, mainly affected by the volatile Fed rate - cut expectations. The closing price on Friday was 79,060 yuan/ton, about a 0.7% increase from the previous week [6]