商品期货早班车-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to the rumored cancellation of export tax - rebate policies for photovoltaic modules and increased export demand leading to inventory depletion, it is advised to wait and see [2]. - For basic metals, copper lacks a clear short - term driver and should be treated with a range - bound trading idea. Aluminum may face short - term downward pressure due to tariff policies, but its price may rise in the long - term. Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [2][4]. - For black industries, steel, iron ore, and coking coal markets are expected to be weak and volatile this week. It is recommended to try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and mainly wait and see for iron ore and coking coal [6]. - In the agricultural products market, short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines. Sugar futures are recommended to go short at high prices. Cotton is recommended to be bought at low prices. Palm oil is still recommended for long - term allocation. Eggs and hogs futures are advised to wait and see [7][9]. - For energy and chemical products, LLDPE and PP are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term. PVC, glass, and soda ash are advised to wait and see. Rubber is recommended to be bought at low prices with caution. Crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract. Styrene is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term and it is recommended to short far - month contracts in the long - term [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: Precious metals fluctuated on Friday, and the US - Russia talks showed no obvious results [3]. - Fundamentals: US retail sales increased in July, foreign investors' holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a record high, and consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. Gold and silver inventories in various regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [3]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term wait - and - see, and long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Basic Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [2]. - Fundamentals: US inflation expectations rose, consumer confidence was weaker than expected, the US dollar index weakened, and the domestic stock market reached a new high. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and the current demand was seasonally weak [2]. - Trading Strategy: Treat with a range - bound trading idea in the short - term [2]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract on Friday increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 35 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. The weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term price may face downward pressure due to tariff policies, and the long - term price may rise as the demand in the peak season is expected [2]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract on Friday decreased by 0.66% compared to the previous trading day, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 60 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina continued to increase, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [4]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is expected to trade in a wide range, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 3150 in the short - term and go long at low prices in the long - term [4]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 8805 yuan/ton on Friday, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 2763 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased slightly last week, social inventory decreased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory increased slightly. The demand for polysilicon increased slightly, the output of silicone was flat, and the demand for aluminum alloy entered the off - season [4]. - Trading Strategy: The trading logic is related to "anti - involution" varieties, and the demand has improved marginally. It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to be volatile [4]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2511 closed at 86,900 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1,600 yuan (+1.9%) [4]. - Fundamentals: The mining end of Jiaxiaowo stopped production, which will affect the monthly supply of 8000 tons of lithium carbonate from August to October. The demand for lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials is in the peak season, and the inventory decreased last week [4]. - Trading Strategy: The current price is expected to be around 85,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 11 contract closed at 52740 yuan/ton on Friday, up 2310 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 10966 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply increased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production schedule of silicon wafers and battery cells in August was in line with expectations, and the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic [4]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long with a light position on pullbacks [4]. Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices fluctuated strongly on Friday [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply of tin ore remained tight, the current supply - demand was weak, and the market focused on the resumption of production in Wa State. The global visible inventory decreased by 210 tons last week [4]. - Trading Strategy: Treat with a range - bound trading idea [4][5]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar main 2510 contract traded sideways and closed at 3197 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of building materials is slightly weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply of plates is stable, and the inventory is at a low level. The overall supply - demand of steel is balanced, but there is a significant structural differentiation [6]. - Trading Strategy: Try a reverse spread for rebar 10/1, and the reference range for RB10 is 3150 - 3220 [6]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main 2601 contract traded sideways and closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of iron ore is slightly strong but weakening marginally. The iron - making water output increased, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The supply is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal norm [6]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see mainly, and the reference range for I09 is 750 - 800 [6]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal main 2601 contract rose and closed at 1250 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The iron - making water output decreased slightly, and the steel mill's profit decreased marginally. The fifth round of coke price increase was implemented, and the sixth round was partially implemented. The inventory at different links is differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose but improving [6]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see mainly, and try to short the coking coal 2509 contract. The reference range for JM01 is 1200 - 1270 [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans rose on Friday, digesting the short - term improvement in supply - demand [7]. - Fundamentals: The near - term US soybean production decreased, while the long - term South American production is expected to increase. The demand in South America is decreasing, and there is a divergence in the export demand for new US soybeans [7]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term US soybeans are strong but within a trading range. Domestic soybeans follow the international cost side [7]. Corn - Market Performance: The corn 2509 contract continued to be weak, and the spot price of corn decreased in the Northeast and increased in the North China [9]. - Fundamentals: Wheat has a high cost - performance ratio and substitutes for corn in feed demand. The import of grains increases the market supply, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. The new - crop corn cost decreases, suppressing the long - term price [9]. - Trading Strategy: Corn futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Sugar - Market Performance: The ICE raw sugar 10 contract closed at 16.47 cents/pound, with a weekly increase of 1.23%. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5656 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.63% [9]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, Brazil's production dominates the raw sugar price. Domestically, the import of sugar pressured the spot price last week, but the price stabilized this week. The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rebounded slightly and is expected to be weak and volatile in the future [9]. - Trading Strategy: Go short at high prices in the futures market and sell call options [9]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US cotton futures price fell on Friday, and the international crude oil price continued to weaken [9]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the drought - affected area in the US cotton - growing region increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose, and recent data adjustments were positive for cotton prices [9]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices, with a trading strategy based on the range of 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton [9]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose on Friday due to good short - term exports [9]. - Fundamentals: The supply in Malaysia is in the seasonal growth cycle, and the demand has improved. The near - term inventory is increasing, while the long - term supply is expected to be tight [9]. - Trading Strategy: Allocate more in palm oil, trading on the long - term tight supply expectation. Pay attention to the production in the producing areas and the biodiesel policy [9]. Eggs - Market Performance: The egg 2510 contract was weak, and the spot price rose [9]. - Fundamentals: High temperatures led to a seasonal decline in the egg - laying rate of hens. The demand from food factories is expected to increase seasonally. The supply is sufficient, and the cost has decreased [9]. - Trading Strategy: Eggs futures are expected to trade sideways after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Hogs - Market Performance: The hog 2511 contract was weak, and the spot price of hogs decreased slightly [9]. - Fundamentals: Consumption is gradually recovering, but the supply is sufficient due to increased slaughter in August. Pay attention to the impact of banquets at the end of the month and school - opening purchases, as well as policy trends [9]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term downward space for the spot price is limited after continuous declines, and it is recommended to wait and see for futures [9]. Apples - Market Performance: The main contract closed at 8188 yuan/ton last week, with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The apple price in Yantai, Shandong was stable [10]. - Fundamentals: The price of early - maturing apples has declined, but high - quality fruits in some areas are still expensive. The current futures market has little contradiction and is expected to trade sideways [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [10]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in North China was 7220 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply increased due to new plant commissioning and the resumption of maintenance plants. The import is expected to decrease slightly. The demand for agricultural mulch is improving, while other areas' demand is stable [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [10]. PVC - Market Performance: The v01 contract closed at 5118, up 0.1% [10]. - Fundamentals: The spot trading of PVC is average, and the driving force is unclear. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is average. The social inventory has accumulated [10]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see [10]. Rubber - Market Performance: The rubber price fluctuated strongly last week, and the RU2601 contract rose 0.7% and closed at 15905 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The purchase price of Thai glue was stable. The spot price increased, and the trading was light. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly, while that of all - steel tires increased [10]. - Trading Strategy: The supply is affected by various factors, and the fundamentals are strong. It is recommended to buy at low prices with caution [10]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1232, up 1% [11]. - Fundamentals: The glass spot price continued to decline, and the production cut expectation is hard to verify. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the inventory has accumulated [11]. - Trading Strategy: The supply - demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Wait and see [11]. PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7020 yuan/ton, and the basis was weak. The overseas price decreased slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply is increasing due to the resumption of maintenance plants and new plant commissioning. The demand is improving as the peak season approaches [11]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply - demand pattern will be loose [11]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: Crude oil prices fell slightly on Friday due to the progress of the US - Russia talks and the statement that the US will not impose tariffs on China's purchase of Russian oil for the time being [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to increase, with OPEC+ planning to increase production in September and other countries also having production increases. The demand in the US is in line with the seasonal pattern, and the refinery operating rate is at a high level [11]. - Trading Strategy: Short at high prices near 510 yuan/barrel for the SC main contract as the short - term supply shortage risk has decreased [11]. Styrene - Market Performance: The EB main contract fluctuated slightly on Friday. The spot price in East China was 7280 yuan/ton, and the trading atmosphere was average. The overseas price was stable, and the import window was closed [11]. - Fundamentals: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly in August. The downstream enterprises are still suffering losses, and the finished - product inventory is high but decreasing. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [11]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term: The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the upside is limited by the import window. Long - term: Short far - month contracts at high prices as the supply will increase [11]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The sa01 contract closed at 1400, down 0.5% [12]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of soda ash declined, and the production cut expectation still exists. The supply is increasing as the summer maintenance is coming to an end, and the inventory is high. The downstream demand for photovoltaic glass is stable [12]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see as the production cut expectation still exists [12].