美元走势偏弱，铜价高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The main reason was that the unexpected increase in the US PPI slightly cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. The hawks and doves within the Fed have significant differences on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year. Gradual and small - scale interest - rate cuts may still be the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the accident - hit mine under Codelco is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity. The inventory accumulation in the domestic off - season is limited, and the near - month structure has changed from flat to a slightly B structure [2]. - Overall, the general recovery of the US September interest - rate cut expectation, the continuous alleviation of global economic growth concerns after the implementation of tariffs, the good results of the Trump - Putin meeting that may promote US - Russia trade and boost the risk appetite of global capital markets, and China's anti - involution and steady - growth policies will effectively boost the demand for the non - ferrous metal market. However, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value and social retail sales in July were slightly lower than expected. Fundamentally, there are continuous disruptions at overseas mines, the inventory accumulation speed in the domestic off - season is slow, and no large amount of US copper has flowed out. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high - level fluctuation in the short term [3][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - LME copper price on August 15 was $9,760.00/ton, down $8.00 (-0.08%) from August 8; COMEX copper price was 448.9 cents/pound, up 0.4 cents (0.09%); SHFE copper price was 79,060 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan (0.73%); international copper price was 70,180 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan (0.76%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.04 to 8.10, and the LME spot premium/discount was -$93.75/ton, down $24.20 (34.80%) [4]. - As of August 15, LME inventory was 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); COMEX inventory was 267,195 short tons, up 3,055 short tons (1.16%); SHFE inventory was 86,343 tons, up 4,428 tons (5.41%); Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 80,600 tons, up 5,100 tons (6.75%); total inventory was 589,938 tons, up 12,533 tons (2.17%) [7] Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level due to the unexpected increase in the US PPI cooling the interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, Codelco's accident - hit mine is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity, and the domestic off - season inventory accumulation is limited [8]. - As of August 15, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 589,000 tons, and the global inventory continued to rebound. The LME copper inventory was basically flat, and the cancelled warrant ratio remained at 7.4%; the SHFE inventory increased slightly by 4,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season was relatively limited; the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.1 [8]. - In the macro - aspect, the US July PPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations. The core PPI rose to 3.7%, much higher than the previous value of 2.6%. After the data was released, the September interest - rate cut expectation slightly declined. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year [9][10]. - In terms of supply and demand, most areas of Codelco's Teniente project have resumed production, but the affected area is a new area for capacity improvement in the next 3 - 5 years. The Panama copper mine has basically no hope of resuming production this year. The domestic spot TC has slightly rebounded to -$38/ton, and the mine - end interference rate is still rising. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. However, affected by the increasingly tight supply of cold materials, non - CSPT smelters have started to slightly reduce production. From the demand side, the construction of power grid investment projects has slightly weakened, dragging down the operating rate of cable enterprises. The overall domestic demand has slightly decelerated month - on - month but still has resilience year - on - year [11] Industry News - Codelco has restarted the underground mining and processing operations of its EI Teniente mine in Chile. Eight underground areas that were evaluated as safe by the mining and labor departments resumed production last weekend, and the smelter also restarted. Four other mining areas near the accident site on July 31 are still closed, and relevant investigations are underway. The eight areas that resumed production account for about 82% of the total production [13]. - Chilean state - owned mining enterprise ENAMI has officially launched an investment recruitment plan to attract investors for a $1.7 - billion smelter. After the renovation, the annual processing capacity of the smelter will reach 850,000 tons of copper concentrates, and the annual production capacity will be 240,000 tons of copper cathodes [14]. - The official data shows that Zambia's copper production in the second quarter declined, posing a risk to the goal of increasing copper production to 1 million tons this year. If the first - quarter production is not revised, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. The production in the second quarter was affected by problems at four producers [15] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, LME copper premium/discount, SHFE copper inter - period spread, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, COMEX copper non - commercial net long position ratio, and LME copper investment fund net position change [16][22][24][28][32]