集运日报：现货指数跌势开始，盘面提前兑现现货降价，近期波动较大，不建议继续加仓，设置好止损-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Due to geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. - The short - term strategy suggests that risk - takers can try to go long on the 2510 contract around 1300, pay attention to subsequent market trends, and set stop - losses [4]. - For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations [4]. - For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts rise, and then judge the subsequent direction after waiting for the callback to stabilize [4]. Summary by Related Information Shipping Indexes - On August 15, compared with the previous period, the NCFI (composite index) was 1052.5 points, down 0.1%; the SCFIS (European route) was 2235.48 points, down 2.7%; the NCFI (European route) was 1188.7 points, down 5.5%; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1082.14 points, down 4.2%; the NCFI (US West route) was 1042.91 points, down 5.9% [1]. - On August 15, the SCFI was 1460.19 points, down 29.49 points from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1193.34 points, down 0.6%; the SCFI European route price was 1820 USD/TEU, down 7.2%; the CCFI (European route) was 1790.47 points, down 0.5%; the SCFI US West route was 1759 USD/FEU, down 3.5%; the CCFI (US West route) was 981.1 points, down 5.9% [1]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8 (expected 49.7, previous 49.5), the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 50.7, previous 50.5), the composite PMI was 51 (expected 50.8, previous 50.6), and the SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5 [2]. - In the US in July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5 (expected 52.7, previous 52.9), the services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53, previous 52.9), and the Markit composite PMI was 54.6, a new high since December 2024 [2]. Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continues with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has become a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [3]. - On August 15, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1373.6, with a gain of 1.10%, a trading volume of 31,100 lots, and an open interest of 54,900 lots, a decrease of 1839 lots from the previous day [3]. - Market pessimism has been repaired, some short - sellers have taken profits and left the market, the spot freight rate has stabilized, and the futures market has fluctuated widely [3]. Shipping Market Forecast - German container shipping company Hapag - Lloyd expects global container shipping volume to increase by 3% year - on - year in 2025 and 2026. The global container fleet may not scrap any capacity in 2025. The expected global ship delivery volume is 3.1 million TEUs in 2024, 1.8 million TEUs in 2025, and 1.6 million TEUs in 2026. The current global ship orders are 9.3 million TEUs, accounting for 29% of the global fleet [5]. Policy Adjustments - The daily trading limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4]. - The margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4].