Report Summary of Methanol on August 18, 2025 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamental outlook for methanol remains weak. Upstream coal - based profits are relatively high, while downstream profits inland are poor and have room for repair. Methanol is relatively over - valued. The actual impact of production cuts may be limited as old production facilities account for a small proportion, and the supply of inland coal - based methanol is gradually recovering. Downstream MTO enterprises have high raw material inventories and limited demand for further inventory building. Port inventory is accumulating at a faster pace, pressuring spot prices in East China. After the weakening influence of coking coal sentiment, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton (-0.94%); MA05 closed at 2387 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.20%); MA09 closed at 2316 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-1.03%) [1]. - Spot Prices: Prices in regions such as Taicang, Shandong, and Guangdong decreased, with Taicang down 20 yuan/ton (-0.85%), Shandong down 5 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and Guangdong down 15 yuan/ton (-0.64%) [1]. - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: Coal and industrial natural gas prices remained unchanged, with Buzhou Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 coal prices stable, and industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing unchanged [1]. - Profit Situation: Coal - based methanol profit was 440 yuan/ton, down 6.3 yuan/ton (-1.41%); Northwest MTO profit increased from - 11.00 yuan/ton to 44.20 yuan/ton (501.82%); East China MTO profit increased from - 550.07 yuan/ton to - 504.57 yuan/ton (8.27%); acetic acid profit decreased by 9.81 yuan/ton (-4.39%); MTBE profit decreased by 1.80 yuan/ton (-1.83%) [1]. 3.2 Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2601 oscillated downward, opening at 2440 yuan/ton, closing at 2412 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton, with trading volume of 486,683 lots and open interest of 623,445, showing increased volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign: An 850,000 - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is under maintenance, and a 600,000 - ton downstream plant is planned to be shut down for maintenance in mid - August. In the Middle East, multiple methanol plants are operating stably, and the total methanol loading volume in August has increased to 480,000 tons, an increase of 215,000 tons (81.13%) compared to the same period last month [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated weakly, closing at 2409 at night. Given the weak fundamentals, methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [1].
甲醇日评:港口累库速度加快-20250818
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-08-18 06:13