尿素早评：供强需弱格局难改-20250818

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand imbalance in the domestic urea market persists, with strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure remains high, and if export demand does not increase, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3) Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.64% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1783 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan or 0.68%; UR09 closed at 1721 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.35% [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In Shanxi, it was 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.62%; in Henan, 1720 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 1.15%; in Hebei, 1730 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.57%; in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, 1710 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 1.16% [1]. - Spreads: Shandong spot - UR spread was - 83 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan; 01 - 05 spread was - 46 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [1]. Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream cost: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: Compound fertilizer (45%S) prices in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton and 2550 yuan/ton respectively; melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5194 yuan/ton and 5100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Market Situation and Strategy - Market situation: The daily production of urea is close to 190,000 tons, at a high level. The enterprise inventory accumulation is not significant, mainly due to increased port - bound volume, but the upstream enterprise inventory is still about 860,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season [1]. - Trading strategy: If export demand cannot make up for the weakening domestic demand, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1].