宏观周报：国内7月经济和社融数据显示消费仍需促进-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no relevant content provided in the text. 2. Core View of the Report - In July 2025, China's national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, but the consumer side still needed promotion. Fiscal financing and direct financing dividends under low - interest rates supported the total social financing, yet private - sector credit repair faced challenges. Abroad, the US economic soft - landing uncertainty increased, and the euro - zone economic situation also had its own characteristics. The RMB exchange rate showed an appreciation trend in August, but two - way fluctuations would continue [3][36][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - Consumption: In July, China's total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2.84228 trillion yuan, a 4.8% increase. By consumption type, in July, retail sales of goods were 342.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, and catering revenue was 45.04 billion yuan, a 1.1% increase [20]. - Investment: From January to July, China's national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 2.88229 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. National real - estate development investment was 536.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [20]. - Foreign Trade: In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, exports were 15.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%; imports were 10.39 trillion yuan, a 1.6% decrease [6]. - PMI: In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Non - manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, down 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [8]. 3.2 Social Financing and Credit - In July 2025, fiscal financing and direct - financing dividends under low - interest rates supported the total social financing, but private - sector credit repair faced challenges. In July, the social financing scale increment was 1.4 trillion yuan. At the end of July, the social financing scale stock was 43.126 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%. In July, new RMB loans were - 50 billion yuan, the first negative growth since July 2005 [36]. - At the end of July 2025, the balance of broad - money M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; the balance of narrow - money M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.28 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.8% [36]. 3.3 Inflation Indicators - In July, China's consumer price index (CPI) was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% month - on - month. Core CPI continued to rise year - on - year, up 0.8%. The producer price index (PPI) was down 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy showed initial results, with prices in some industries stabilizing [41][42]. 3.4 Overseas Macroeconomy - United States: In July, the initial value of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 104,000. The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, but there were differences among committee members [7][9]. - Eurozone: In July, the euro - zone HICP was 2.0% year - on - year, and the core HICP was 2.3% year - on - year [16]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - In August 2025, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to appreciate. The exchange - rate strengthening was driven by factors such as the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September, the improvement of domestic economic data, and the release of the backlog of US - dollar settlement demand. In the future, the two - way fluctuation pattern would continue [62].