国投期货综合晨报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is volatile, and the SC09 contract is relatively weak. The risk of Russian oil sanctions is weakening, and the oil price is facing a breakthrough in the volatile pattern. It is recommended to continue holding the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options on crude oil [2]. - The precious metals market is in a volatile adjustment due to the suppression of risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - For various metals, non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and ferrous metals such as iron ore, coke, etc., have different market trends and investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and policy factors [4][15][16]. - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., face different market pressures and opportunities, and investment decisions should be made according to specific fundamentals [22][23]. - In the agricultural products sector, soybeans, corn, etc., are affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policy, showing different price trends and investment outlooks [37][41]. - In the livestock and poultry sector, the prices of pigs and eggs are affected by supply - demand and policy factors, with corresponding investment strategies [42][43]. - In the financial market, the stock index shows a certain market trend and style preference, while the bond market has a differentiated structure [49][50]. 3. Summary by Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, the international oil price fluctuated. The SC09 contract fell 0.71% due to position - shifting. After the US - Russia presidential meeting, the risk of Russian oil sanctions weakened, and the oil price further declined on Monday. Attention should be paid to the results of the Zelensky - Trump meeting. It is recommended to hold the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options on crude oil [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, with weak shipping and power generation demand. The Singapore fuel oil inventory is high, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the weakening of geopolitical support and the bearish fundamentals [22]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The overseas export market is loose, but the increase in East Asian chemical procurement provides support. The import volume has increased at the beginning of August. The refinery gas price may still decline. The chemical profit and the price - to - naphtha ratio are good, and the market is in a low - level oscillation [24]. Metals - Precious Metals: The US retail sales month - on - month rate was 0.5% on Friday, in line with expectations, and the precious metals had limited fluctuations. The positive signals from the US - Russia meeting over the weekend suppressed the risk - aversion sentiment, and the precious metals may continue to oscillate and adjust [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: The copper price fluctuated narrowly last Friday. The market expects a high probability of a rate cut in September. The 2508 contract entered delivery with a spot premium. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels [4]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price fell slightly on Friday. The downstream start - up rate is stable, and the de - stocking is slowing down. The inventory may be at a low level this year. The short - term trend is oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - Zinc: The low inventory supports the LME zinc price. The short - position of funds is continuously reduced. The import window is closed, and the outer market drives the inner market. The short - term direction is not clear, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - Lead: The SMM aluminum social inventory has increased. The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, and the domestic aluminum ingot inventory may be hidden. The downstream procurement has improved, and it is recommended to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan [9]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The Shanghai nickel price rebounded, and the market trading was active. The upstream price support has weakened, and the inventory is at a high level. The nickel price is in a rebound and oscillatory trend [10]. - Tin: The domestic and foreign tin prices rebounded last Friday. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory also decreased. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11]. - Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The global iron ore shipment is strong year - on - year, and the domestic port inventory has stabilized and increased. The steel apparent demand has declined, but the iron water production is still high, and the short - term demand is supported. The future iron water production may decrease, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level [16]. - Coke: The price oscillated during the day. The coking plants in East China may have production restrictions. The coking profit has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is affected by policy expectations and has high volatility [17]. - Coking Coal: The price oscillated during the day. The coking coal production has decreased, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is affected by policy expectations and has high volatility [18]. Chemicals - Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene: The propylene supply has increased, and the market sentiment is bearish. The polyethylene production enterprises have a strong intention to support the price, and the polypropylene market is weak due to insufficient demand and increasing supply pressure [29]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: The PVC price is weak, with stable supply and general demand, and the inventory has been accumulating. The caustic soda price is strong, with increased downstream replenishment and reduced supply. The short - term price is oscillatory and strong, but the long - term supply pressure is large [30]. - PX & PTA: The PX and PTA prices rebounded slightly last week and then declined. The terminal demand is expected to recover, and attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the demand recovery rhythm [31]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils - Soybeans & Soybean Meal: The USDA August report was bullish for US soybeans, which are currently in a callback. The new - season US soybean production may be affected by weather. The domestic soybean arrival volume is expected to be about 10 million tons from August to October. The soybean meal market is cautiously bullish [37]. - Corn: The Dalian corn futures continued to decline last Friday. The USDA August report was bearish for US corn, and the domestic corn supply is sufficient without policy guidance, so it may continue to be weak at the bottom [41]. - Livestock and Poultry - Pigs: The weekend pig spot price declined. The pig supply is expected to be high in the second half of the year, and the price may continue to fall. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging at high prices [42]. - Eggs: The weekend egg spot price rose, and the futures market is still under the pressure of high production capacity. Attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and cold - storage egg delivery [43]. Financial Products - Stock Index: Most broad - based indexes rose in the previous trading day, and the trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days. The policy focus has shifted from quantity to structure, and the market is pricing in the policy support expectation. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [49]. - Treasury Bonds: Most treasury bond futures closed down, and the 30 - year main contract fell 0.29%. The short - term Shibor rates rose. The bond market may face more negative factors in the second half of August, and the yield curve may become steeper [50].