煤炭月度供需数据点评：7月：供给收缩，反内卷或带来“温和风暴”-20250818

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market" for the coal industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1][31]. Core Insights - The coal supply has contracted, and the "gentle storm" brought by anti-involution may lead to a more moderate impact on the industry [1][6]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative output of raw coal reached 2.779 billion tons, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, although the growth rate is declining [2][3]. - In July 2025, the raw coal output was 381 million tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.52% [2][3]. - Terminal demand has been supported by manufacturing and infrastructure, with fixed asset investment increasing by 1.6% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025 [3]. - Coal imports in July showed a month-on-month increase, but the cumulative import volume from January to July 2025 was 25.7 million tons, down 13% year-on-year [3][4]. Supply and Demand Summary - The report highlights a marginal decrease in raw coal supply from January to July 2025, with July's output reflecting a significant decline [2][3]. - The demand for coal is primarily driven by improvements in electricity demand and support from manufacturing and infrastructure investments [3][4]. - The report notes that the coal price entered a rebound phase in July, with coking coal showing more elasticity compared to thermal coal [4][5]. Price Trends - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rise, with market pricing in July exceeding expectations due to anticipated policy shifts related to anti-involution [5][6]. - The report suggests that the low point for coal prices in 2025 may have already occurred, with expectations for price increases in the second half of the year [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific coal companies such as Lu'an Huanneng, Jinko Coal Industry, Shanxi Coal International, and others, anticipating a slight upward or fluctuating trend in coal stocks [6][7].