碳酸锂日评：碳酸锂周度产量不降反升-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strengthening, with profit margins expanding, production rebounding, downstream demand rising, and social inventory being depleted. However, due to the cooling measures taken by the Dalian Commodity Exchange on coking coal futures, there is a need to guard against the decline of the "anti - involution" sentiment. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. The recommended operation strategy is short - term range trading, and appropriate purchase of options for protection [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: On August 15, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely. The trading volume was 868,811 lots (-191,316), and the open interest was 401,139 lots (+11,962). The spreads between different contracts (near - month to consecutive - one, consecutive - one to consecutive - two, consecutive - two to consecutive - three) and the basis also showed certain changes [3]. - Spot Market: The SMM average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and the prices of various lithium minerals (spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, etc.) changed. The price of spodumene concentrate increased, and the price of lithium mica also rose. The price differences between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, etc., also had corresponding changes [3]. - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 23,485 tons (+1,546). The social inventory decreased, the inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other sectors increased [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of lithium phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials rose. In August, the production of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and the production of lithium manganate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased [3]. - Demand Side: In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the month - on - month sales decreased. The shipment volume of 3C products was average. In August, the production plan of energy - storage batteries increased [3]. 3.3 Company News - Sigma Lithium: From April to June 2025, the company's lithium carbonate ore production totaled 68,368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%, exceeding the quarterly target of 67,500 tons. The total sustaining cash cost was $594 per ton, lower than the target of $660 per ton and 24% lower than the same period last year. However, the sales volume in the second quarter decreased by 23% to 40,350 tons. The company's revenue decreased to $21.1 million compared with the first quarter of 2024, and the net loss expanded from $10.8 million to $18.8 million [3]. - Global Lithium Resources: On August 13, it reached an aboriginal land mining agreement for its flagship Manna lithium project in the Eastern Goldfields of Western Australia. With the agreement, the company can accelerate other project priorities, and the final feasibility study and mining lease application optimization will be completed by the end of the year. The Manna lithium project has a mineral resource of 51.6 million tons with a lithium grade of 1.0% [3]. - Green Technology Metals: On August 13, it obtained two new 21 - year mining licenses for its Seymour lithium project. The new licenses cover the entire proposed construction area, which is an important regulatory milestone for the project and further promotes the project's development schedule. The project only needs to be subject to provincial environmental assessment disclosure and does not require federal review under Canada's Impact Assessment Act [3].