贵金属日评：美国8月消费者通胀预期反弹欧盟推美俄乌三方会晤促和平协议-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - US consumer - end inflation rebound reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts, and the EU intends to hold a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine to reach a peace agreement. Due to continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the downside space for precious metal prices is limited. It is recommended that investors wait for price pullbacks to lay out long positions [1] Summary by Related Data Shanghai Gold - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 775.86 yuan/g, down 2.77 yuan from the previous day, and the trading volume was 23,234. The position volume decreased by 730. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was 2.34, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 2.71 [1] Shanghai Silver - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 9,173 yuan/ten - gram, up 15 yuan from the previous day, and the trading volume was 452,542. The position volume decreased by 63,142. The spread between the near - month and far - month contracts was - 23, and the basis (spot - futures) was - 12 [1] COMEX Gold Futures - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 3,381.70 dollars/ounce, down 101 dollars from the previous week, and the trading volume was 115,486. The position volume decreased by 3,192. The inventory was 38,668,707.68 troy ounces [1] COMEX Silver Futures - Closing price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 38.02 dollars/ounce, down 0.01 dollars from the previous day, and the trading volume was 86,225. The position volume decreased by 34,959. The inventory was 507,014,610.35 troy ounces [1] London Gold Spot - Price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 3,383.75 dollars/ounce, down 8.35 dollars from the previous day [1] London Silver Spot - Price on 2025 - 08 - 15 was 37.73 dollars/ounce, down 0.59 dollars from the previous day [1] Summary by Macroeconomic Information US Economy - In July, retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and real retail sales grew for the tenth consecutive month. In August, the University of Michigan consumer confidence unexpectedly declined, and long - and short - term inflation expectations climbed. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in short - term Treasury bonds in Q3. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in PPI and core CPI in July. The 1 - year and 5 - year inflation expectations in August were 4.9% and 3.9%, higher than expected and previous values, reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts to September/October [1] European Economy - The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone (Germany) CPI annual rate in July was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but flat compared to the previous value. Due to the continued recovery of the manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, Germany, and France in July, the ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1] UK Economy - The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the pace of balance - sheet reduction later. The CPI (core CPI) annual rate in June was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and previous values. The manufacturing (service) PMI in July was 48.2 (51.2), so the Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1] Japanese Economy - The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. The core CPI annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) in June (July) was 3.3% (2.9%), flat compared to expectations but lower than the previous value. The GDP quarterly rate in Q2 was 0.3%, higher than expected. With the US Treasury Secretary urging the Bank of Japan to raise rates, there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [1] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to wait for price pullbacks to lay out long positions. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,400 - 3,500 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/g and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/g; for London silver, focus on the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 9,100 - 9,500 yuan/ten - gram [1]