镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 15, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest also decreased. The LME nickel rose 1.09%. The spot market trading improved, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel ore price remained flat, the nickel iron plant's loss narrowed, and the domestic production schedule decreased in August while Indonesia's production increased. The domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and the export profit decreased. The demand for ternary materials, stainless steel plants, and alloy and electroplating was stable. The overall nickel fundamentals were loose, and the nickel price was expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - On August 15, the stainless - steel main contract fluctuated at a low level. The trading volume and open interest both decreased. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The stainless - steel production schedule increased in August, the terminal demand was weak, the high - nickel pig iron price rose, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat. The current macro - sentiment had a greater impact, and although the fundamentals were loose, the price return to fundamentals still needed time and there was cost support. It was expected that the price would follow macro - fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Futures Market - Shanghai nickel: The closing prices of futures near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts all decreased on August 15 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 87,649 hands (- 14,608), and the open interest was 66,327 hands (- 110). The inventory increased by 1,421 tons [2]. - LME nickel: The closing price of the 3 - month nickel in the electronic disk increased by 145 to 15,195. The trading volume was 5,540 hands (- 1,692). The total inventory increased by 522 tons [2]. Spot Market - The average prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, and 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) all decreased. The basis premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract increased by 100 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices were flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel iron plants' losses narrowed, domestic production schedules in August decreased, and Indonesia's production increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits decreased [2]. - Demand: Ternary material production schedules increased, stainless - steel plant production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Futures Market - The closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts all decreased on August 15 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 143,960 hands (- 16,602), and the open interest was 134,252 hands (- 985). The inventory decreased by 244 tons [2]. Spot Market - The average prices of 304/2B coil (both trimmed and untrimmed edges in Wuxi and Foshan), 304/No.1 coil in Wuxi and Foshan, and other stainless - steel products decreased to varying degrees. The basis premium of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge in Wuxi) to the active contract decreased by 85 [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: The stainless - steel production schedule increased in August [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - The high - nickel pig iron price rose, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained flat [2]. Market News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [2]. - Multiple domestic provinces and cities have suspended accepting applications for automobile replacement subsidies, but scrapping and renewal subsidies continue [2]. - On August 13, Chinese nickel producer Luojia Nickel submitted an application for nickel metal brand listing on the LME. If approved, it will be the seventh Chinese nickel brand listed on the LME since 2023, which will increase the LME nickel's liquidity [2].