沪铜日评：国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The decline in copper production in Zambia's second quarter poses risks to the goal of increasing copper production to 1 million tons this year. The domestic copper smelting plant's maintenance capacity may decrease month - on - month in August, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased month - on - month. The inflation rebound at the US port end reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts, but the decrease in scrap copper anode plates and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate. It is recommended that investors wait and see [1][2][4] Summary by Related Contents Copper Market Data - On August 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 79,060, with an increase of 110 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 50,116 lots, a decrease of 1,618 lots. The open interest was 152,557 lots, an increase of 216 lots. The inventory was 24,560 tons, an increase of 126 tons [2] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,180, a decrease of 255 compared to the previous day. The Shanghai copper basis difference was 120, a decrease of 365 [2] - The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,760, a decrease of 17 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 155,800 [2] - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.489, a decrease of 0.01 compared to the previous day. The total inventory weight was 267,195, an increase of 400 [2] Zambia Copper Production - Zambia is the second - largest copper producer in Africa. In 2025, the first - quarter copper production was about 224,000 tons. The copper production in the first six months was 439,644 tons. Assuming no revision in the first - quarter production, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 4% [2] - Four producers, Sino Metals Leach, First Quantum Minerals, Mimbula, and Sino Xinyuan, affected the second - quarter production. Sino Metals Leach was forced to close due to tailings dam failure and acid leakage [2] - Zambia produced about 820,000 tons of copper last year. The first - half production increased by about 18% year - on - year. To reach the 1 - million - ton target this year, the second - half production needs to increase by about 27% [2] Industry Projects - Jiangxi Heli Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. (formerly Jiangxi Jinhui Copper Industry Co., Ltd.) plans to invest 1.9766065 billion yuan in the industrial park of Qianshan County, Jiangxi to relocate and upgrade the existing project, building an annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project [3] - On August 14, 2025, the environmental impact assessment of Jiangxi Hefan Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd.'s annual 200,000 - ton recycled electrolytic copper project was publicly announced for acceptance, with a publicity period from August 14 to August 27 [5] - Jiangxi Linghao New Material Technology Co., Ltd. plans to build a project in De'an County for annual processing of 500,000 tons of steelmaking furnace charge and 200,000 tons of copper - aluminum recycling, with a total investment of 200 million yuan and environmental protection investment of 1.31 million yuan [3] Copper Product Industry - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China increased compared to last week, leading to an increase (decrease) in the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods). The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased) compared to last week [4] - The capacity utilization rate of copper product industries may change. For example, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil in some fields may increase, while that of copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease [4] Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]