碳酸锂周报：市场担忧供应收缩，但需警惕情绪回落-20250818

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market is worried about the contraction of domestic lithium carbonate supply due to the suspension of the Jianxiaowo lithium mica mine and uncertainties in domestic salt lake supply. The "anti - involution" sentiment continues, and the short - term price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong. However, high prices will stimulate the release of overseas resources, and the long - term fundamental pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the progress of Jiangxi mines and the continuity of the "anti - involution" sentiment [4][90] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Short - term operation, be cautious when chasing long positions, and appropriately buy options for protection; Operating range: 70,000 - 100,000 [4][90] - Resource side: There are still concerns about the supply of lithium mica in Jiangxi, the output of spodumene is basically flat, and the import volume of lithium ore has decreased [4][90] - Supply side: Last week, the output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, the import volume of lithium salts decreased, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile increased significantly, and the recycling end was strengthened [4][90] - Demand side: The growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales has slowed down. The production schedules of cathode and cell factories have increased, with inventory accumulation of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week. The production schedule of energy - storage batteries has increased slightly, and the energy - storage winning bid scale has decreased [4][90] - Cost side: The prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica have risen significantly [4][90] - Inventory: Overall inventory reduction, inventory reduction in smelters, and inventory accumulation in downstream and other sectors [4][90] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, with a weekly increase of 15.87%. The trading volume reached 4.63 million lots (+1.86 million), and the open interest reached 401,100 lots (+80,400). The basis was at a discount of 4,200 yuan/ton [6][7] 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis 3.3.1 Lithium Ore - In July, China's spodumene output was 6,500 tons of LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; lithium mica output was 16,100 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [12] - In June, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 427,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.1% [16] - In April, the volume of spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 58,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.3% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% [21] 3.3.2 Lithium Battery Recycling - In August, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 23,484 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 28.9% [26] 3.3.3 Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate was 19,980 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% - In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased to 17,698 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.6% - In July, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,633 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5% [32][34] 3.3.4 Lithium Hydroxide - In August, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 36%, and the output was 23,820 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.3% - In June, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 6,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 56.1% [42] 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis 3.4.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate was 79,053 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% - In July, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 59%, and the output was 252,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 70% [45] 3.4.2 Ternary Materials - Last week, the output of ternary materials was 16,283 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% - In June, the import and export volume increased [50] 3.4.3 Ternary Precursors - In August, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 41%, and the output was 76,160 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4% - In June, the export volume decreased [53] 3.4.4 Manganese - Based and Cobalt - Based Materials - In August, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the output was 11,978 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 26% - In August, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 61%, and the output was 8,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [54] 3.4.5 Electrolyte - In August, the output of electrolyte was 169,680 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 38.0% - In June, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased [61] 3.5 Terminal Demand Analysis 3.5.1 Power Batteries - In July, the output of power batteries was 133.8 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.6% and a year - on - year increase of 45.8% - In July, the installed capacity of power batteries was 55.9 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 34.3% [64] 3.5.2 New Energy Vehicles - In July, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.243 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.0% and a year - on - year increase of 26.3% - In July, the sales of new energy vehicles was 1.262 million, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% [67] 3.5.3 Energy Storage - In August, the output of energy - storage batteries was 45.15 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 42.9% - In June, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 4.57 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 15.1%; the winning bid capacity scale was 12.11 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 27.3% and a year - on - year increase of 45.0% [72] 3.5.4 Consumer Electronics - In July, China's smartphone production was 94.32 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.1% - In July, China's micro - computer production was 25.52 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [75] 3.6 Cost Analysis - Lithium ore prices have risen significantly. The price of spodumene concentrate has increased by $163/ton, and the price of lithium mica has increased by 300 yuan/ton [79] 3.7 Inventory Analysis - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 162 tons. Structurally, smelters' inventory decreased by 1,306 tons, downstream inventory increased by 124 tons, and other inventory increased by 1,020 tons - Last week, lithium iron phosphate inventory increased by 483 tons, and ternary materials inventory increased by 737 tons [86][87]