钢矿周报：宏观数据偏弱黑色高位回调-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that there is still room for correction in the black market, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and focus on the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - Last week, the rebar price corrected from a high level, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebar diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to close at 3188, and the spot price also corrected. The rebar in East China was reported at 3320 yuan/ton, down 20 week - on - week [13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and an increase of 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average start - up rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of the five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, the rebar output decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 3.1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement outbound volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and a decrease of 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and a decrease of 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car market retail volume was 452,000 vehicles, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Domestic manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 3.1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [37]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, with a growth rate of 2.95%. The social inventory of rebar increased significantly, and the rebar factory inventory increased by 40,000 tons [41]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased slightly by 8,400 tons [44]. 3.1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 10 was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The basis of hot - rolled coils was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [47]. 3.1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, with the inversion deepening by 8 compared with last week [50]. 3.1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 251, widening by 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, widening by 20 compared with last week [53]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - Last week, the iron ore price oscillated after a correction, with narrow fluctuations. The 09 contract rose 7 to close at 790, and the trading volume and open interest both declined. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [59]. 3.2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 1.2 million tons compared with last year [62]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and an increase of 320,000 tons compared with last year [68]. 3.2.3 Rigid Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons/day, an increase of 0.34 tons/day week - on - week, an increase of 0.54 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 11.89 tons/day compared with last year [71]. 3.2.4 Speculative Demand - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week [75]. 3.2.5 Port Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and a decrease of 12.71 million tons compared with the same period last year [78]. 3.2.6 Downstream Inventory - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [81]. 3.2.7 Shipping - The sea freight from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The sea freight from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [84]. 3.2.8 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, remaining flat compared with last week. The 01 contract was at a discount of 19.5, remaining basically flat compared with last week [88].