机构行为跟踪周报20250818：配置盘承接力度已逐渐加大-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market adjusted significantly under the suppression of the equity market. Fund selling pressure reappeared, but the overall intensity was controllable, and the allocation disk gradually took over. The selling pressure of funds on interest - rate bonds last week was weaker than that in the two weeks of 7/19 - 7/25 and 7/5 - 7/11, and they maintained net buying of credit bonds. The承接 strength of insurance and rural commercial banks gradually increased in the second half of the week [9]. - Looking forward, continuous attention should be paid to the fund redemption pressure. Since the beginning of this year, the bond market has been volatile. After this week's adjustment, most pure interest - rate bond funds and interest - rate bond funds have recorded negative returns in the past three months. Meanwhile, the profit - making effect of the equity market has attracted capital inflows, and the growth rate of equity fund scale has been greater than that of bond funds for the second consecutive month [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Bond Market Vitality Index Rebounds - As of August 15, the bond market vitality index rebounded by 16 pcts to 29% compared with August 8, and the 5D - MA rebounded by 3 pcts to 28% [1][10]. - Vitality warming indicators: The trading volume of the active 10Y China Development Bank bond / the balance of 9 - 10Y China Development Bank bonds (the rolling two - year quantile increased from 55% to 87%); the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared with the average of the past 4 years (the rolling two - year quantile increased from 17% to 24%); the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate (the rolling two - year quantile increased from 25% to 55%) [12]. - Vitality cooling indicators: The median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased from 4.42 years to 4.41 years, and the rolling two - year quantile decreased from 98.7% to 98.3%; the implied tax rate of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond (inverse) decreased from 95.0% to 94.1%, and the rolling two - year quantile decreased from 9% to 4% [13]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: Fund Selling Pressure Reappears, Allocation Disk Gradually Takes Over 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Type Selection - In the cash bond market last week, the net buying strength ranking was: money market funds > insurance > large - scale banks > overseas institutions and others > wealth management > rural commercial banks; the net selling strength ranking was: city commercial banks > securities firms > joint - stock banks > funds. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the net buying strength ranking was: insurance > rural commercial banks > wealth management > overseas institutions and others; the net selling strength ranking was: funds > large - scale banks > joint - stock banks > securities firms > other product types [23]. - The main bond types of various institutions: large - scale banks focus on 1 - 3Y and 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds; rural commercial banks focus on interest - rate bonds over 10Y; insurance focuses on interest - rate bonds over 10Y and 7 - 10Y credit bonds; funds focus on interest - rate bonds within 1Y; wealth management and other product types have no obvious main bond types [28]. 3.2.2 Trading Disk - As of August 15, the median duration of all - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.01 years to 4.41 years compared with August 8. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds and interest - rate bond funds decreased by 0.30 years and 0.22 years to 5.43 years and 5.24 years respectively; the median duration of credit bond funds increased by 0.04 years to 4.02 years. The median durations of high - performance interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds decreased by 0.26 years and 0.23 years to 6.54 years and 4.55 years respectively [3][44]. 3.2.3 Allocation Disk - Treasury and Policy - Financial Bond Primary Subscription Demand: Last week, the primary subscription demand for treasury and policy - financial bonds showed differentiation, and the subscription demand for ultra - long bonds decreased. The weighted average full - field multiples of treasury and policy - financial bonds were 3.30 times and 2.87 times respectively [58]. - Large - Scale Banks: Since August, the net buying strength of 1 - 3Y Treasury bonds has remained strong. As of August 15, the cumulative net buying scale of 1 - 3Y Treasury bonds this year was 5406 billion yuan [64]. - Rural Commercial Banks: This year's cumulative net buying scale of cash bonds is significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net buying strength of short - term bonds within 1Y. However, the net buying strength of 7 - 10Y and bonds over 10Y is higher than the same period in previous years [76]. - Insurance: This year, the net buying strength of cash bonds is significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the strong buying of ultra - long bonds over 10Y. As of August 15, the ratio of this year's cumulative net buying of cash bonds to cumulative premium income reached 43.38%, exceeding 40.10% at the end of August last year. The ratio of this year's cumulative net buying of cash bonds to the cumulative issuance scale of government bonds over 10Y was only 28.42%, lower than 35.14% and 31.15% at the end of July and August last year [81]. - Wealth Management: Since June, the cumulative net buying scale of cash bonds has continued to rise, significantly higher than the past three years. As of August 15, the cumulative net buying of bonds over 10Y this year was 138 billion yuan. Last week, the duration of net - bought cash bonds in the secondary market rose again, reaching a new high since February 23, 2024 [91][93]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: Most Interest - Rate Bond Funds Recorded Negative Returns in the Past Three Months - Since August, the month - on - month increase in the scale of equity funds has still been higher than that of bond funds. The month - on - month increase in the scale of bond funds and equity funds in August was 5.03 billion yuan and 14.57 billion yuan respectively, and in July it was 14.23 billion yuan and 16.41 billion yuan respectively. - The issuance share of newly established bond - type funds last week was low, only 120 million yuan, a significant drop from 2.51 billion yuan in the previous week. - Last week, the net value of various types of bond funds declined significantly, and credit bond funds had relatively stronger resistance to decline. Most pure interest - rate bond funds and interest - rate bond funds recorded negative returns in the past three months [94].