港股、海外周观察：市场过度Pricein美联储降息预期？

Group 1 - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, indicating it is still in an upward trend with a potential for further inflows from southbound funds [1] - Southbound funds have increased their inflow speed, suggesting there is still potential for higher positioning in the future [1] - The market is focusing on dividends and is looking for growth sectors, with some southbound funds already increasing their allocation to internet technology stocks [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that despite the market raising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, these expectations may fluctuate, especially with the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting [1][4] - The report notes that the U.S. stock market, particularly the Dow Jones, has shown significant gains, with a 1.7% increase this week [1] - The report emphasizes that the U.S. economy is not in a recession, with stable wage growth supporting consumption and nominal growth [6] Group 3 - The report indicates that the inflation outlook remains moderate, with the U.S. August CPI rising 2.5%, which is a decrease from the previous 2.9%, marking the lowest level since February 2021 [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase of 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, the largest increase in three years [2] - The report mentions that the market is fully pricing in a 100% probability of a rate cut in September, with a slight adjustment following the PPI announcement [2] Group 4 - The report discusses the "Bessenet Put" which has reinforced the probability of a rate cut in September, with expectations for a potential 50 basis point cut [3] - The report notes a temporary truce in U.S.-China tariffs, with a 90-day extension announced, alleviating previous market concerns [3] - The report suggests that the U.S. stock market may face multiple "stress tests" in the short term, with heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic data leading up to the September meeting [4] Group 5 - The report highlights that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $29.547 billion, with the U.S. stock ETFs leading the inflow at $22.66 billion [7] - The report indicates that the financial, industrial, and healthcare sectors saw the highest net inflows, while communication, technology, and consumer discretionary sectors experienced outflows [7][36] - The report notes that the market breadth for the S&P 500 has increased to 62%, indicating a positive sentiment in the market [4][22]