瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to have a positive outlook overall, with both supply and demand increasing, but the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 89,240 yuan/ton, up 2,340 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 163,758 lots, down 33,924 lots; the position of the main contract is 421,106 lots, up 19,967 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 340 yuan/ton, up 12,160 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 23,485 lots/ton, up 1,546 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 84,600 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,300 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,640 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 911 US dollars/ton, up 27 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,850 yuan/ton, up 410 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production is 44,600 tons per month, up 500 tons; imports are 17,697.62 tons per month, down 3,448.16 tons; exports are 429.65 tons per month, up 142.92 tons; the operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4%; the production of power batteries is 133,800 MWh per month, up 4,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 55,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate is 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 148,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 124,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 130,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, down 1%; the monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,243,000 units, down 25,000 units; the monthly sales are 1,262,000 units, down 67,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles are 8,220,000 units, up 2,286,000 units; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 units, up 20,000 units; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1.308 million units, up 600,000 units; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 68.63%, up 0.18%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.38%, up 0.15% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total subscription position is 151,376 contracts, down 817; the total put position is 122,622 contracts, up 5,607; the put - call ratio of the total position is 81%, up 4.119%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.48%, up 0.0123% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council said that China should use the policy intensity and capital investment for investment to boost consumption; China's economic data for July showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year; the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy; Chinese researchers have developed high - energy - density lithium - ion batteries; the main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly, with increased positions, spot discount, and weakened basis; on the fundamentals, the raw material prices rose, supply may increase, and demand has recovered [2].