瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20250818

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Alumina: The alumina market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply, stable demand, with loose spot supplies and potentially accumulating inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position [2]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply and weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the molten aluminum ratio. It is advisable to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all declined; the three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum also decreased [2]. - Spreads: The spreads between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends of increase or decrease [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased, that of alumina increased, and that of cast aluminum alloy decreased [2]. - Inventories: LME aluminum inventory, LME aluminum cancelled warrants, and Shanghai aluminum inventory on the previous trading day all decreased; the total inventory of alumina and Shanghai aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, Yangtze Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum, alumina spot price, and average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot all decreased to varying degrees [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased, while the basis of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The production, import, and export of alumina all increased; the demand decreased, and the supply - demand balance increased [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The import and export of aluminum scrap decreased; the average prices in Foshan and Shandong remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, the import and export decreased, the production capacity utilization rate and the start - up rate increased [2]. - Aluminum Products: The production of aluminum products increased, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile: The production of automobiles decreased in July 2025 compared with the previous period; the national real estate prosperity index declined [2]. - Aluminum Alloy: The production of aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, while the built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum showed different trends; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum increased slightly, and the call - put ratio decreased [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's economic data in July showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size and social consumer goods retail sales increased year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased [2]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable rise in prices [2]. - The Trump administration in the United States expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [2]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [2].