尿素周报2025、8、15：秋季肥需求偏弱-20250818

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for the urea industry is neutral, with various aspects such as supply, demand, policy, etc., also rated as neutral, indicating a balanced outlook in the short - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply, summer maintenance is recovering, and production has stabilized, being higher than the historical average. Although the Indian tender price is high, China has not participated. The compound fertilizer operating rate has slightly declined, the progress of autumn fertilizer is slow, and industrial demand is tepid. Overall, short - term domestic supply and demand are weak, and attention should be paid to changes in export policies [3]. - The current monthly spread is low, and opportunities for the spread to strengthen can be considered when it is at a low level [3]. - There is no news of further liberalization of exports for now [3]. - Supply has stabilized while demand remains weak. Traders are adopting a wait - and - see attitude, spot trading is weak, and prices are falling, but the situation of low - price orders has improved recently [3]. - Enterprise inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have slightly decreased. Some enterprises have reduced their order - receiving prices under pressure [3]. - International prices remain high, and potential export profits are still at an absolute high. India's tender price exceeds $530 per ton, but China has not directly participated, and attention should be paid to subsequent export policy changes [3]. - The progress of autumn fertilizer in compound fertilizer enterprises is slow, and the operating rate has begun to decline. Attention should be paid to the growth progress of autumn fertilizer demand in September. The price of melamine has rebounded significantly, but demand is still significantly weak, and the sustainability of the price increase remains to be observed [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - This week, the supply - demand situation of urea remained relatively loose. Some enterprises completed maintenance, and production stabilized. Supply was significantly higher than the same period last year, agricultural demand decreased significantly, the compound fertilizer operating rate stopped increasing, and exports were not further liberalized. Indian tender prices were as high as $530 per ton, but China did not participate. Enterprise inventories increased again, forcing enterprises to lower prices. A few low - price enterprises saw an improvement in order - receiving, and the recent decline may be limited [10]. - Ammonium chloride prices remained stable, and the operating rate changed little recently. The demand side mainly executed previous orders. Affected by the weakening of urea prices, market purchasing power was weak, and most traders were waiting and watching [14]. - The ammonium sulfate market had few transactions, and the current supply - demand relationship was still relatively loose. The operating rate of the caprolactam plant increased to 93.48%. With the preliminary reduction of the Shanxi Yangmei plant, the subsequent operating rate may be slightly reduced. After several rounds of price increases, coke enterprises' product profits recovered, and the operating rate increased slightly. Overall, ammonium sulfate supply was slightly stronger [14]. - Current export profits continue to remain high, but there is still no news of new export quota releases, and potential export demand cannot be freely released [33]. Operating Rate - Coal - based profits are still good. The operating rate during summer maintenance remains relatively low but is still at a high level over the years. According to Longzhong Information statistics, some enterprises are under maintenance this period, and some are resuming production. Next week, some enterprises plan to stop production, and the overall operating rate will not change much [43]. Inventory - This week, enterprise inventories slightly increased. Domestic demand entered the off - season, and the compound fertilizer operating rate was also blocked from rising. Enterprises had relatively difficulty in receiving orders [54]. - This week, port inventories slightly decreased, with little change. Large - granular urea at Yantai Port left the port successively. There was a small amount of large - granular urea being shipped to Longkou Port, Jinzhou Port, and Rizhao Port, and small - granular urea was shipped to Longkou Port, Qinhuangdao Port, and Zhenjiang Port. Most ports had both departure and arrival of goods [54]. Profit - Coal prices have continued to rise slightly, increasing the cost of coal - based urea production [63]. - As urea prices fluctuate at a low level, the profit of gas - based urea production has almost disappeared [78]. Export - Exports currently remain in the same state as before, with no news of further liberalization. After domestic prices weakened, potential export profits still remained extremely high. Although domestic supply and demand are relatively loose, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in export demand caused by export policy changes [83]. Domestic Demand - Urea prices weakened, while phosphate and potash fertilizer prices were relatively firm. The overall cost of compound fertilizer changed little. The arrival of autumn wheat fertilizer in Henan and other places was slow, and it is expected to have large - scale shipments in September. Attention should be paid to changes in autumn fertilizer demand [94]. - The progress of autumn fertilizer sales was slow, and the output of compound fertilizer slightly decreased [97]. - The price of melamine rebounded significantly, mainly due to an increase in enterprise maintenance. The operating rate has decreased significantly recently. As of August 14, the melamine capacity utilization rate was around 44.25%, and some enterprises still have device maintenance plans from September to October. However, there are still no signs of substantial recovery on the demand side. The output of panel furniture is weak, and the demand for melamine impregnated paper grows slowly. The sustainability of the subsequent melamine price increase still depends on demand changes [108]. Raw Materials - Recently, coal demand has remained high, supply has slightly decreased, and prices have continued to rise slightly. Due to the increase in new energy power generation squeezing thermal power demand and the relatively high inventory of power plants, the upward space for coal prices remains to be observed [142]. - The supply - demand situation of synthetic ammonia has recently weakened significantly. After the completion of maintenance in the north, production has increased significantly again, while downstream demand remains tepid. Ammonia enterprises' inventory pressure has rapidly increased, and prices are under pressure to decline [151]. Futures and Basis - Recently, the number of warehouse receipts is significantly higher than the historical average, and enterprises have a strong willingness to deliver goods [181]. Balance Sheet - The balance sheet shows the total supply, production, import, total demand, and surplus of urea from September 2024 to December 2025. In the recent period, the export volume of compound fertilizer has increased significantly, slightly increasing the demand for compound fertilizer [185][187].